Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 9th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
Garth Lemke,
If the temperatures warm beyond forecast expectations on Monday or Tuesday, watch for an increase in natural activity.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Monday will be cloudy, no new snow, -7, and SW 25-40 km/h winds. Tuesday will bring flurries, 10cm of snow, -9 to -6, and SW 20-45 km/h winds. Wednesday could be 14cm of snow, -6 to -4, 20-35 km/h SW winds, and 1600m freezing level. Thursday could have light snow, -9 to -3, and 1800m freezing level. Friday may bring sun and 2100m freezing level.
Snowpack Summary
2-10cm of new snow in the past 48 hours with steady 40-60, gusting 90 km/hr SW winds at ridge top stiffening the soft slab top layer. This is overtop a facetted yet supportive mid-pack in most areas. Shallow areas are not as supportive. Basal faceting is observed at or near the ground. Many West aspects are scoured and firm.
Avalanche Summary
Sunday's patrol noted a size 2.5 wind slab on Parkers slabs near the highway, 60cm thick, stopping at mid-path, and occurring in the past 24 hours. Significant whumpfing was noted while skitouring in the valley and leading into the forest a short ways. Sunday's visibility was good and nothing else noted. Nothing new was noted on Saturday.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Steady moderate to strong and some extreme gusting SW winds is developing slabs on lee aspects particularly the North aspects. It is noteworthy that with the current strong SW winds, expect scoured slopes or very hard surface slab on windward aspects
- Variable winds may create pockets of wind slab in some unexpected locations.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
This layer is a rain crust up to 1950m and only reactive to large loads. Typically this layer is down around 40cm.
- Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
This is a low probability yet high consequence problem if initiated. Neighbors are still noting some activity using explosives. Triggers include cornice failures, explosives, or a skier's weight in a very shallow snowpack spot.
- Caution around convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 10th, 2022 4:00PM
