Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - The weather pattern is stable

MONDAY: Cloudy in the morning with sunny skies in the afternoon/ alpine temperatures near -9/ generally light winds from the West/ freezing level valley bottomTUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud/ alpine temperatures near -12/ ridgetop winds light from the West/ freezing level valley bottomWEDNESDAY: Sunny with some clouds/ alpine temperatures -12/ ridgetop winds light from the northeast/ freezing levels valley bottom

On Sunday, a human triggered avalanche size 1.5 was reported. This ran on a northwest aspect at 2300 m. The crown was 15 cm, 20 m wide and ran 300 m. Explosive control also triggered a few storm slabs up to size 2 from northeasterly aspects 1800-2000 m. Check out the initial report here.On Monday, If the sun comes out the surface snow may become wet and deteriorate on sun-exposed slopes. Loose wet avalanches may occur.Even though the avalanche hazard has decreased I suspect human triggered avalanches will be possible, especially where the storm slab sits above a weak layer like surface hoar or the early November crust. If you're in the backcountry and have observations to share, please post to the Mountain Information Network.

Up to 55 cm of recent snow sits on a series of crusts and a feathery surface hoar layer. A predominant crust can be found below this recent snow at treeline and into the alpine on all aspects. Reports indicate that the slab above this crust may be more reactive on northerly aspects. I would investigate this bond before jumping onto large, planar terrain features. We have a lot of uncertainty around this weak surface hoar layer, its distribution is spotty. I suspect that it could exist on sheltered slopes in the alpine and at treeline. At the bottom of the snowpack you'll likely find another crust and sugary weak facet crystals around it. At treeline the average snowpack depths are 80 cm. These depths taper rapidly at lower elevations.