Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Kakwa, McGregor, North Rockies, Sugarbowl.
New wind slabs and lingering buried weaknesses warrant conservative terrain travel.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
The most recent notable avalanche occurred on Saturday near Torpy, where riders observed and triggered storm slab avalanches 40 to 50 cm deep, around 1250 m in elevation. The avalanches released on a weak layer of surface hoar crystals described in the Snowpack Summary. See here for more information. Given the nature of this weak layer, it remains possible that riders could trigger similar avalanches going forward, where it exists.
Snowpack Summary
Strong northeast wind is likely forming wind slabs at higher elevations. In terrain sheltered from the wind, around 50 cm of recent snow likely remains soft. This snow may rest on weak faceted grains and/or surface hoar crystals, or perhaps a hard melt-freeze crust. The surface hoar may be most prevalent around the Torpy area.
A melt-freeze crust from mid-January is buried 60 to 120 cm deep, which may have weak faceted grains above it.
The lower snowpack is consolidated.
Weather Summary
Monday Night
Clear skies. 30 to 50 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -25 °C.
Tuesday
Clear skies. 30 to 50 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -22 °C.
Wednesday
Mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -18 °C.
Thursday
Cloudy with 1 to 3 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -16 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- It's a good day to make conservative terrain choices.
- Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
- Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
- Avoid freshly wind-loaded terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs may be found on atypical slopes due to strong northeast wind. Assess for slabs before committing to high-consequence terrain.
Aspects: South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Riders could trigger various weak layers that are buried in the top metre of the snowpack. There's uncertainty exactly where they exist in the region but they could be most problematic in wind-sheltered openings, such as open trees.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5