Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Tuesday night: Cloudy, 15-25 cm of snow, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

Wednesday: Cloudy, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, moderate west wind, alpine high temperature -10 C.

Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, light west wind, alpine high temperature -12 C. 

Friday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, strong south wind, alpine high temperature -10 C.

There have been many reports of large (size 2-2.5) avalanches from both natural and human triggers on a variety of aspects and elevations releasing on a surface hoar layer formed in late December. These avalanches have been breaking 80-120 cm deep. Several of them have been remote-triggered, like the one in this MIN from Wednesday.

Be sure to check out this MIN, this MIN, and this MIN for helpful illustrations of slopes that are likely to harbor this problem. A sincere thanks to the community for submitting these reports!

As the new snow settles, storm slab avalanches are likely to be triggered and have the potential to step down to these deeper layers, forming very large and destructive avalanches.

20 to 35 cm of snow is forecast to accumulate by Wednesday afternoon with moderate to strong southwest wind. Expect storm slabs to be especially touchy in lee terrain features.

A very concerning layer of surface hoar from late December is now buried 80-120 cm deep. This layer formed in late December and continues to produce large avalanches across aspects and elevations. Recent snowpack tests have confirmed this weak layer's propagation potential (check out this MIN from Saturday).

• The trees are not the safe-haven they normally are at this time. Terrain at treeline is primed for human triggered avalanches.
• Choose simple, low-angle, well supported terrain without convexities.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• If triggered, storm slabs in-motion may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.