Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos.
Warm air and rain may destabilize the snowpack at lower elevations, with new wind slabs potentially forming up high.
Head out with a conservative mindset and adjust your travel plans accordingly to the changing conditions of elevation and time of day.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with precipitation. 15-40km/h southwest winds. Freezing level around 1000 m.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with precipitation, 5-15 cm of new snow accumulation at higher elevations. 10-30 km/h southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 2000 m.
MONDAY: Cloudy with precipitation, 5-10 cm of new snow accumulation at higher elevations. 15-40 km/h northwest winds. Freezing level around 1500 m.
TUESDAY: Mainly clear. 10-30 km/h southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 2200 m.
Avalanche Summary
Two persistent slab avalanches were reported near Blue River on Thursday, both on south-facing alpine slopes. One was a very large (size 3.5) natural avalanche and the other was a small (size 1.5) slab remotely triggered by riders.Â
Widespread loose wet and wet slab avalanche activity occurred during the warm-up on Wednesday.Â
Looking forward, riders may be able to trigger wind slabs in lee terrain features in the alpine and treeline and wet loose avalanches in steep terrain at lower elevations. It also may be possible to trigger the weak layer described in the Snowpack Summary, where it still exists.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 20 cm of recent snowfall tapers rapidly with elevation. Southwest wind have formed pockets of windslab in the alpine and exposed treeline. A refrozen crust can be found below the new snow on all aspects as high as 2300 m. This crust is expected to break down throughout the day at low elevations with rain and warm temperatures. Below the crust, the top 10-30 cm of the snowpack is moist. At very low elevations, the snowpack may become wet and isothermal.
A weak layer that is isolated in nature may be found around 40 to 60 cm deep, which has been most prominent in the south of the region (e.g., access points between Clearwater and Valemount). The layer consists of surface hoar crystals in treeline terrain on northerly aspects or weak faceted grains above a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes (i.e., east, south, west). The last avalanche observation on this layer was March 23 near Blue River.Â
The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
- As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Rain at lower elevations may cause the surface crust to break down. Pay attention to how thick and supportive the crust is, and avoid steep slopes when the crust starts to weaken and become unsupportive to your weight.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer may be found around 40 to 60 cm deep, particularly in the south of the region (e.g., Wells Gray, Blue River, Valemount). The layer consists of weak faceted grains above a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes and surface hoar in shaded areas sheltered from the wind. This layer is becoming harder to trigger, but a resulting avalanche would be large and destructive.
Most recent activity has been on south aspects.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs may be found in steep, lee terrain features in the alpine and exposed treeline. These wind slabs will be most reactive where they overlie a slick crust.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2