Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 10th, 2015 7:54AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Diligence may be required to maintain conservative decisions when seeking decent riding conditions over the weekend.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Only trace amounts of snow are expected throughout the forecast period. Expect generally overcast skies with occasional sunny breaks on Sunday and Monday with increased cloud on Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to remain at valley bottom, while ridge top winds will remain generally light.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports include numerous small natural loose snow and thin storm slab avalanches on steep sun-exposed slopes, as well as a small skier controlled slabs on a north aspect. One Size 2 80 cm deep persistent slab avalanche was accidentally triggered by a goat on a steep south aspect in the alpine... not sure if he got out...

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has been redistributed into thick wind slab on lee slopes at treeline and alpine elevations from moderate to strong westerly winds. Warm alpine temperatures have moistened the surface snow with a breakable surface crust forming on steep sun-exposed slopes. The mid-December surface hoar/crust persistent weak layer down 50-90 cm is still producing easy to moderate sudden planar test results at treeline elevations and below. Recent reports of whumpfing and the general nature of this weakness suggest it is susceptible to remote triggering and widespread propagation.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

A persistent weakness buried mid-December is primed for human triggers and wide propagations producing very large avalanches. Remote triggering from flat terrain and step-down from shallower weaknesses makes this problem especially tricky to manage.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Stick to small features with limited consequence and be aware of what is above you at all times.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Wind Slabs

Potentially reactive wind slabs are lurking below ridge crests and behind terrain features.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Jan 11th, 2015 2:00PM