Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 17th, 2011 8:42AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada triley, Avalanche Canada

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Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

A cold front is expected to move through the interior on Saturday night. This trailing cold front will follow in the wake of the warm air that we saw on Saturday and is forecast to bring another 10 cm by Sunday morning to the North and West regions of the Monashees and Cariboos. Less snow is forecast for the South and East areas of the Selkirks and Purcells. Freezing levels are expected to fall back to valley bottoms as cold air and moderate to strong Northwest winds move over the interior. Sunday is expected to be mostly dry but probably still overcast. Clearer and colder weather should be across the interior on Monday. The next Pacific system is expected to start moving in from the coast on Tuesday. It is a little early to determine intensity and timing for the next system.

Avalanche Summary

Sluffing and ski-cuts up to size 1.0 reported by operators in this region. Most operators have not been in the alpine due to strong winds and poor visibility.

Snowpack Summary

A cold front is expected to move through the interior on Saturday night. This trailing cold front will follow in the wake of the warm air that we saw on Saturday and is forecast to bring another 10 cm by Sunday morning to the North and West regions of the Monashees and Cariboos. Less snow is forecast for the South and East areas of the Selkirks and Purcells. Freezing levels are expected to fall back to valley bottoms as cold air and moderate to strong Northwest winds move over the interior. Sunday is expected to be mostly dry but probably still overcast. Clearer and colder weather should be across the interior on Monday. The next Pacific system is expected to start moving in from the coast on Tuesday. It is a little early to determine intensity and timing for the next system.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Expect windslab development on lee and cross-loaded features. Anticipate loading lower on the slope with forecast high winds. These windslabs may be sliding easily on the recently buried surface hoar.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
The new storm snow may settle into a cohesive slab that could be touchy to human triggers. Cooler temperatures should re-freeze moist snow at lower elevations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Variable snow depths may make it possible to trigger a deeper instability on steep, unsupported terrain features. Areas that get more new snow may have enough load to make this layer active again.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Dec 18th, 2011 8:00AM