Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 8th, 2016 8:05AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Loose Wet and Cornices.

pmarshall, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Spring conditions. Avalanche danger is expected to rise during the day with warming and solar radiation. Plan to retreat to cooler north-facing terrain if the snow surface is becoming moist or wet.

Summary

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of flurries/showers. The freezing level could drop to 1500 m overnight before rising to around 2000 m during the day. Winds are moderate to strong from the NW. SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level shoots up again to 2200 m and winds are light and variable. MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level remains near 2200-2300 m and winds are light.

Avalanche Summary

A fairly widespread but small (size 1-1.5) loose wet avalanche cycle was observed on steep solar aspects on Thursday. There were also a few reports of isolated slabs up to size 2 from north-facing alpine slopes. The possibility of persistent slabs and cornice falls should increase if the snowpack does not refreeze overnight and temperatures remain high.

Snowpack Summary

Sunshine and soaring temperatures resulted in moist or wet snow on all aspects and elevations, except true-north slopes above around 2200 m. Temperatures did not cool much overnight on Thursday, which probably prevented a strong refreeze. This may be the case again heading into the weekend. A couple crusts could exist in the top 60-80 cm up to around 2000 m. The late February persistent weak layer is down 80 to 120 cm below the surface. This layer may be a concern in isolated terrain, but it will probably take a large trigger like a cornice fall or surface avalanche in motion to set it off. A moist/wet, isothermal, and rapidly melting snowpack exists on all aspects below around 1500 m.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose wet sluffs are possible if the sun appears in the afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds could also create isolated pockets of wind slab near ridge tops.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Cornices

Slight cooling and a bit of cloud should reduce the likelihood of natural cornice falls; however, I would continue to tread cautiously around large overhanging beasts.

Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Apr 9th, 2016 2:00PM