Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Synopsis: Snow should start falling in earnest around supper time Saturday evening. Look for it to snow through Sunday night accompanied by strong SW winds. In the wee hours of Monday morning the flow begins to take a more northwesterly tilt which eventually leads to ridging and clearing on Monday/Tuesday. Saturday Night: Freezing Level: 1200m - 1700m; Precipitation: 1:7mm - 2:12cm; Treeline Wind: Moderate, SW | Extreme SW at ridgetop.Sunday: Freezing Level: 1300m - 1500m; Precipitation: 1:5mm - 1:10cm; Treeline Wind: Moderate, SW | Strong SW at ridgetop.Monday: Freezing Level: 700m; Precipitation: Nil; Treeline Wind: Light, NW | Moderate NW at ridgetop

A group of sledders triggered a large avalanche not far from Blue River on Friday resulting in one fatality. Some information is available here.In the neighboring North Columbia Monashee and Selkirk region:On Friday we received numerous reports of small soft slabs running on the March 13 Surface Hoar/Crust combo.On Thursday avalanches ran naturally to size 2.5. Explosive control work produced avalanches to size 3. Back in the Cariboos, on Wednesday riders remote triggered avalanches to size 2 on steep NE facing slopes at treeline. One natural size 3 on a relatively steep NE facing bowl feature was also observed, likely failing on the February 10th PWL.The group involved in a very close call with a size 3.5 avalanche in the Ozalenka Valley south of McBride submitted a great incident report. Check it out here. It's an excellent example of the kind of activity we've been seeing throughout the interior in the last week.

The surface is currently a mix of 3/6mm surface hoar and crust. Last weeks storm snow has settled into a 50cm - 80cm slab that rests on the early March interface consisting of small grained surface hoar in sheltered areas and a sun crust on solar aspects. In upper elevation wind exposed terrain the new snow has been pushed into deep wind slabs by moderate SW winds.The last week featured an average daytime freezing level around 1500m which resulted in a daily melt freeze cycle that left many features wet and sloppy by the afternoon. This setup resulted in some serious incidents recently.Ridgetop cornices remain large and unsupported.The February 10th surface hoar/facet/crust combo is 90cm - 160cm below the snow surface and widespread throughout the region. Surface avalanches in motion and cornice fall still have the potential to initiate an avalanche on this deeply buried weak layer. Remote triggering on this layer is ongoing. The mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.