Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain on Friday

Overnight Thursday and Friday: Heavy precipitation becoming light on Friday / Moderate to strong southwest winds becoming westerly / Freezing level dropping from 1800m to 1200mSaturday: Light snowfall / Moderate west winds / Freezing level at 1200mSunday: Light snowfall / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at surface

Several natural storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 were reported from the region on Wednesday. They occurred on various aspects and elevations. At least 1 of the reported avalanches failed on the recently buried surface hoar. That avalanche was on a north aspect at 1900m and had a crown of 60-100cm. I would expect fairly limited observations with reduced visibility on Thursday.

Strong Southwest winds, new snow, and warming temperatures are contributing to an ongoing storm slab problem. The new storm snow overlies a widespread layer of surface hoar that developed during the recent clear weather. Sun crusts also developed during the clear weather on solar aspects up to about 2000 metres. Some areas had strong winds before the surface hoar was buried, so its distribution may be specific to sheltered and shaded terrain features. There is still concern for the buried weak layer of surface hoar from February 12th that is now down more than a metre in most places. The forecast new load of snow and wind may overload this deeply buried weak layer in areas that did not slide after the last storm.