Avalanche forecast

Tongariro

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
View on map

Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,300 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,800 m–2,300 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,800 m
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind slabs exist on the north and west aspects. Wind-transported deposits are significant at the higher elevations. The wind slab problem is gaining strength and improving stability. The weather is settled over the next 24 hours with light to moderate winds and fine periods.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Wind slabs exist and are gaining strength and stabilizing. Blizzard conditions over the past 48 hours have increased the size of these deposits. Triggering by natural events such as rock and icefall cannot be ruled out. The existing anchors have progressively been buried, increasing the reactivity of these wind slab deposits. Weaknesses exist within the new snow and at the interface between new and old snow. It is advisable to avoid any newly formed slabs that have a convex shape and lack support.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Size 1 avalanche triggered by an explosive trigger. Turoa ski patrol during slope assessment today, the 10th of July. The location is 2100 metres on a northwest aspect.

Current Snowpack Conditions

New snow accumulation has been significant. Over the past 24 hours, an estimated 40 cm in the northern areas and 50 cm in the southwest. Snowfall accumulation has also been noted on Mt Ngauruhoe and Mt Tongariro. The transported deposits are significant above 2000 metres in elevation. This new snow was transported to the north and west aspects, forming large deposits. A crust has formed and is now buried within the new snow deposits. Weaknesses are present within these deposits. The threshold has lowered over the previous 24 hours. IN the southwest areas of the region, isolated start zones above 1600 metres have enough snow for avalanches to run.

Mountain Weather

Today, fine periods are increasing. Tomorrow, the 11th of July, is partly cloudy with the chance of a shower. Some morning and evening fog. Winds are moderate southeasterly’s easing throughout Saturday, becoming light. The freezing level is about 1300 metres elevation. A low-pressure system lies northeast of the country today, driving a cold southerly over the North Island. Meanwhile, a broad ridge of high pressure lies across the South Island. Tomorrow, the high over the South Island expands to cover the whole country.

Sliding Danger

There will be areas that gale winds have stripped over the past few days. This would have exposed any pre-existing icy rime crusts on slopes above 1400 metres. Plenty of hazards, such as exposed rocks and cliff bands, remain. It's essential to carry the appropriate gear, crampons, and an ice axe. A targeted skill set will reduce the chance of an accident.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident due to a stable weather pattern.
  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered