Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Another pulse of moderate precipitation is expected Saturday overnight with freezing levels around 1500m. Precipitation should ease during the day on Sunday but light scattered flurries are expected to persist, at least in the morning. Broken or scattered sky cover is possible in the afternoon and some areas may see sun. Freezing levels should remain around 1500m. Alpine winds are forecast to be strong from the SW on Sunday morning and ease during the day. The next storm pulse is expected to arrive Sunday overnight and persist through the day on Monday. Freezing levels may drop Sunday overnight but this depends on the amount of clearing between the storm pulses. Freezing levels on Monday are uncertain and may be as low as 500m or as high as 1500m. Alpine winds are expected to be moderate from the SW. The end of the storms is forecast for early Tuesday. Lingering flurries and sunny breaks are both possible on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the warm air is expected to persist for several days following the end of the storm and freezing levels may remain unseasonably high.

Observations from the Cariboos have been limited during the storm but several natural size 2 storm slabs were observed on Friday. In the North Columbia region, natural avalanches up to size 3.5 were reported on Saturday. On Sunday, natural avalanches remain likely at upper elevations where storm and wind loading continue. At lower elevations which have seen rain, natural activity is less likely but remains possible. Human-triggering remains very likely at higher elevations on Sunday. If the sun comes out on Sunday, solar aspects will likely see natural avalanche activity.

50-80cm of recent storm snow has fallen over the late-Jan weak layer. Rising freezing levels during the storm have created upside-down snow conditions and highly reactive storm slabs. Rain has soaked the snow surface up to around treeline elevation. Strong SW winds have formed wind slabs in exposed leeward terrain features. The storm slab sits on an old rain crust at lower elevations, variable surface hoar, and/or wind affected surfaces at higher elevations. The mid-January surface hoar is typically down over 60-100cm and is still reactive in some areas. The mid-December weak layer is down 100 to 150cm. It has generally been unreactive but may wake-up with the new storm loading.