Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 8th, 2016 8:22AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

pgoddard, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Skyrocketing temperatures are expected to weaken surface snow layers, make cornices extra fragile and possibly wake up deeply buried weak layers.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to bring sunny skies above valley cloud. Valley cloud tops should be around 1500 m. A warm southerly flow causes alpine temperatures to rise well above 0, with peak warming and sunshine on Tuesday. Some light precipitation may arrive on Thursday with the passage of a warm front.For more details check out http://www.avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

A cycle of size 1-2 avalanches was triggered naturally on Saturday in response to new snow and strong to gale winds. There have been recent very large persistent slabs in the neighbouring North Columbia region. These indicate the possibility of similar conditions in the Cariboos, where the same weak layer is known to exist. Warm temperatures and sunshine could spark a natural avalanche cycle.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and sunshine are expected to weaken and moisten surface snow layers. Strong to gale SW winds on Saturday created wind slabs and cornices in many areas. In sheltered areas, 30-60 cm recent storm snow is settling, and in some places may still be reactive as a soft slab. In some areas, recent storm snow may be sitting on a crust. There are three buried surface hoar layers in the upper 120 cm, some of which are still giving sudden results in snowpack tests. Forecast warming may increase the reactivity of the persistent slab above these layers.

Problems

Loose Wet

Strong sunshine and warm temperatures are expected to weaken surface snow layers and cause loose wet avalanches or wet slabs.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recently formed wind slabs may still be able to be triggered by the weight of a person. Cornices are likely to be fragile in the hot weather.

Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid wind loaded terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

A deeply buried weak layer can still be triggered, creating very large avalanches. Forecast warming may increase the sensitivity of this problem.

Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>Be cautious around steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 5

Valid until: Feb 9th, 2016 2:00PM