Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

5-10 cm of new snow overnight with freezing levels staying above 1300 metres with moderate to strong southwest winds. Another 5-10 cm of snow during the day on Thursday as freezing levels rise up to 1500 metres with moderate westerly winds. Mostly sunny on Friday with light westerly winds and freezing levels climbing up to 1700 metres. Freezing down to 800 metres by Saturday morning, with mostly sunny conditions and freezing rising up to 1700 metres.

On Tuesday, we had a report of a natural slab avalanche size 2.5 on a southwest aspect at 2200 metres with a wide propagation and depth of about 100 cm, the bed surface was suncrust with melted surface hoar on top. Solar induced loose wet avalanches up to size 2.0 were reported on Monday and Tuesday. On Sunday we had reports of numerous storm slab avalanches size 1.5 from various aspects, with a couple reaching size 2.0 on north aspects.

Forecast new snow and wind is expected to develop new storm slabs at all elevations. Daytime warming continues to melt surface snow, and overnight crust recovery has been variable depending on cloud cover. Large cornices loom over many ridge lines and many are teetering on the brink of failure. Old wind slabs may remain a problem on high elevation north facing features. The make up of the late February persistent weak layer is an aspect dependant mix of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust down around 70 to 100 cm below the snow surface. Large triggers like natural cornice fall and explosive control work continue to initiate avalanches failing on this interface. The recent warm to cool temperatures should give the overlying slab a bit of strength, but it has yet to prove itself trustworthy. Unfortunately there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. As a precautionary measure, we recommend remaining suspicious of steep unsupported features at and above treeline.