Small windslabs may be reactive at higher elevation
A loose wet cycle is possible at lower elevations if it really warms up.
Expect a patchy snowpack, with mostly exposed crusts and plenty of rocks.
Windslabs that formed from Wednesday's northwest wind should be bonded by now.
More recent wind is from the southwest, but there is very little snow available to be transported. So it is expected that any slabs formed will be small.
However, any recently wind loaded slopes may be able to be trigged by a single person's weight. Even a small avalanche may be consequential with rocks or cliffs in the runout.
A solid freeze is expected overnight. Combined with a dry SW wind, this should keep the loose wet danger away.
However, a warm day is forecast, and it's possible that enough heat will get through to cause a problem.
Take care to observe the state of the snow and be prepared to avoid steep slopes and runouts if the snowpack loses strength.
South westerly winds have redistributed what little transportable snow that was left after severe gale NW winds that have stripped snow earlier this week. This wind has left old crusts and rock exposed on North and West facing slopes.
Below about 1800-2000m the snowpack has become wet and gone through overnight freezes.
Snow depths in the south are about 70cm, tapering to about about 50cm mid range and 40cm in the north.
The snowpack north of Stag Saddle is not well understood, with no direct observations.
Fine, with severe frosts in the morning.
Wind at 1000 metres
Westerly 45 km/h but gale 65 km/h in exposed places.
Wind at 2000 metres
Southwesterly 65 km/h.
Freezing level
2600 metres.
The wind has stripped the soft snow back to exposed crusts.
Below 2000m, the snowpack has gone through a melt, so any overnight freeze will form a slick crust.
Expect high sliding danger with lots of rocks in the runouts.
Iceaxe and crampons are recommended.
High
No recent avalanches have been reported in the area.
If you see any activity on the Two Thumb Range, please make a public observation. It really helps us to produce accurate forecasts.
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
