The snowpack in the Two Thumb Range is mostly stable.
Some isolated pockets of reactive windslab could still be lurking at higher elevation
It's a good day to get out in the hills and enjoy the short lull in the recent relentless wind.
Previous windslabs are bonding and gaining strength. Isolated slopes may be able to be trigged by a single person's weight. Even a small avalanche may be consequential with rocks or cliffs in the runout.
A solid freeze is expected overnight. Combined with a dry SW wind, this should keep the loose wet danger away.
However, a warm day is forecast, and it's possible that enough heat will get through to cause a problem.
Take care to observe the state of the snow and be prepared to avoid steep slopes and runouts if the snowpack loses strength.
A size 1 (too small to bury a person) windslab avalanche occurred naturally on south east facing terrain at 1500m some time last week.
There have been no other reported avalanches in the area.
If you see any activity on the Two Thumb Range, please make a public observation. It really helps us to produce accurate forecasts.
South westerly winds have redistributed what little transportable snow that was left after severe gale NW winds that have stripped snow earlier this week. This wind has left old crusts and rock exposed on North and West facing slopes.
Below about 1800-2000m the snowpack has become wet and gone through overnight freezes.
Snow depths in the south are about 70cm, tapering to about about 50cm mid range and 40cm in the north.
The snowpack north of Stag Saddle is not well understood, with no direct observations.
Morning cloud clearing to fine. Areas of morning frost.
Wind at 1000 metres
Light, westerly 30 km/h developing at night.
Wind at 2000 metres
Light, southwesterly 30 km/h developing in the evening.
Freezing level
1400 metres rising to 1700 metres in the afternoon.
The wind has stripped the soft snow back to exposed crusts.
Below 2000m, the snowpack has gone through melt freeze cycles, so any overnight freeze will form a slick crust.
Expect high sliding danger with lots of rocks in the runouts.
Iceaxe and crampons are recommended.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
