Anticipate a warm day on Wednesday. The freezing level is forecast to rocket up to 2500m.
Wet slide activity (Loose Wet and Wet Slab) is probable especially, on North facing slopes.
Careful terrain selection is advised.
The likelihood of wet slides ( Loose Wet and Wet Slab) will increase as the temperature rises. This activity is most likely to occur on solar (North facing) slopes during the middle of the day. If the surface is heating rapidly and losing cohesion it is time to move to a cooler aspect. Avoid confined areas (gullies etc) and slopes exposed to terrain traps.
Southerly winds have been shifting snow. Isolated pockets of Wind Slab could exist. These slabs are most likely to be found on North facing slopes above about 1700m. Avoid deposits of stiff snow particularly, if the terrain is steep and complex.
A widespread cycle of Loose Wet avalanches is likely on Wednesday.
If you see evidence of avalanches in the back country please enter a Public Observation.
The freezing is forecast to climb to 2500m. Expect the snowpack to warm rapidly. A small quantity of fresh snow August 15/16th. Snow at upper elevations 12/8 (15 - 25cm) in the West and less further East. Rain to about 1850m on the 12/8. Facets (weak, sugary forms) have been found in places. These pockets of questionable strength appear to be isolated and are most likely to exist on slopes facing East to South. You would be wise to do some investigation before committing to steep, shady terrain. Melt/freeze crusts are now forming regularly especially, on North Facing slopes.
Wednesday - partly cloudy clearing to a fine afternoon. Moderate to strong Southerlies easing during the morning. Freezing level - 1500m rising to 2500m in the afternoon.
Icy crusts have been widespread below about 1850m. These slick crusts may now be covered by a thin layer of fresh snow. The underlying pack remains shallow especially, at lower elevations. Rocks and icy areas may be lurking below a thin cover of snow. Carrying ski crampons and/or an ice axe and crampons is recommended.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
