The avalanche hazard is LOW at all elevations. Human-triggered avalanches are unlikely at this time. Remember that even though human triggered avalanches are unlikely now, it doesn't mean they are impossible. Practice safe travel protocols and watch for red flags such as recent natural avalanche activity, shooting cracks, and collapsing that indicate unstable snow.
The next avalanche forecast will be issued on Wednesday 12/3. There is the potential that the avalanche hazard could rise to Moderate by Tuesday if our area receives more than the 1-2" currently forecasted and north winds continue.
Despite very strong North winds kicking up on Thanksgiving wind slab development has been minimal due to very little snow available for transport. Thin wind slabs that developed mid-week have been found to be unreactive to human triggers and are expected to continue to gain strength.
Avoid travelling in terrain traps where even a small windslab could have consequences .
Numerous Glide Cracks have been observed from Gully2- Cracked Ice on North aspects between 2000-3000'. Avoid travelling on or below Glide Cracks as they can fail independent of snowpack stability. This avalanche problem can potentially release the entire snowpack without warning, even when the overall snowpack is stable.
Numerous Glide Cracks on the Cracked Ice Buttress
Photo: Gareth Brown
The current state of our snowpack has been shaped by the last two weeks of windy weather. Significant North wind began on the 18th of November, with speeds consistently in the 60's and gusts in the 70's. This initial wind storm stripped any loose snow from an already thin early season snowpack, creating deep wind deposits in cross-loaded gullies and on the lee side of terrain features. The snowpack directly reacted to this rapid loading py producing a natural avalanche cycle during the 18th-19th time period. As the wind died down, wind slabs quickly gained strength and became unreactive with deep knife hard wind deposits existing in cross loaded terrain and the lee side of terrain features. Windward terrain was a mix of old rain crusts, sastrugi and bare ground. Following this initial round of wind, the weather was mild with the only snowfall arriving on the 25th, consisting of 1-2 inches. A continued North wind outflow pattern quickly redistributed this new snow. It is these thin wind slabs formed over the top of old knife hard wind slabs that are locked up that are the primary concern. The recently formed thin windslabs have been gaining strength quickly and are unreactive.
Weak snow has been identified on the ground in the Continental zone. Low snow and thick brush have made travel difficult in this zone, so observations are limited. This weak snow will become a concern later in the week as a pattern shift occurs and precipitation returns, putting stress on a potentially weak snowpack.
