Lawinenlagebericht

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Hochgebirge
4 · Gross
Waldgrenze
4 · Gross
Unterhalb
3 · Erheblich
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Veraltet — dieser Lagebericht ist 6 months ago abgelaufen. Du siehst vergangene Verhältnisse, nicht den aktuellen Bericht.

Kernpunkte

The avalanche danger is HIGH above 2000' and Considerable below.  Human triggered avalanches 1-3+ feet in depth are very likely and natural avalanches are likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended above 2000'.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Lawinenprobleme

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    2–3

    Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Strong north winds are expected to rapidly load lee terrain and stiffen the slab over a persistent weak layer. Human-triggered avalanches are likely today at mid and upper elevations.

    We are rating the danger HIGH at mid and upper elevations because wind loading has the potential to push an already reactive persistent weak layer back into a very sensitive state. This weak layer is buried roughly 2–3 feet deep and produced large natural avalanches as recently as 2/12, including crown lines approaching 0.8 miles in length. This problem will not “heal” quickly.

    Avoid travel in avalanche terrain above 2000’ today. Choose low-angle, sheltered terrain and avoid runout zones.

    Uncertainty note: If winds are significantly lower than forecast, danger may trend closer to CONSIDERABLE—but the consequences remain high, and today’s snowpack response is difficult to predict.

    (2/12/2026)

    Natural persistent slab avalanche on north Catchers Mitt. Crown width mapped at~.8 miles

    Photo: Kyle Sobek

  • Wind Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    1–2

    Strong north winds will redistribute recent snow into thicker, stiffer slabs on lee slopes and in cross-loaded features (gullies, rollovers, below ridge crests). Wind slabs will be sensitive to human triggers, and rapid loading could produce natural avalanches.

    The key concern today is not just the wind slab itself—it’s the potential for a wind-slab trigger to step down and release the deeper persistent weak layer. In that scenario, a small-to-moderate wind slab could initiate a much larger avalanche failing 2–3+ feet deep, with long propagation.

    Avoid travel in avalanche terrain above 2000’, and give runouts a wide berth.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Possible
    Größe
    2–3

    A deeply buried weak layer near the ground remains a low-likelihood, high-consequence problem—especially in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or highly variable. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack may step down to the basal weak layer, particularly in the Continental zone.

    Watch for thin spots near rock outcrops, scoured features, convex rollovers, and along ridge tops. Wind loading adds stress to these shallow areas, and we don’t know where the tipping point is.

    (2/13/2026)

    Clueland deep slab (Eastern Tiekel Valley)/ NW 2/13

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: 

-Numerous large naturally triggered persistent slab avalanches over a widespread area. Thompson Pass Corridor (Tones Temple, Little Oddesey, Oddesey, and N cathers Mitt). Tonsina Glacier

  -small to large slab avlanches reported up Bear Creek near ice climing routes

--Photos at the bottom of the page show avalanches from last week that failed on our persistent weak layer. These avalanches are older than 72 hours, but the layer that these avalanches failed on is still very much a concern. Detailed acounts of these avalanches can be found in the observations/avalanche tab.

Forecast Discussion

We’ve had an unusually persistent set of avalanche problems this season. Today is a day of heightened concern because we’re expecting our first substantial outflow wind event since late December.

A persistent weak layer formed in mid-January has been steadily loaded by multiple small-to-moderate snow events. Sensitivity increased through early February, and two human-triggered avalanches resulted in full burials on 2/6. Continued loading produced large, connected natural avalanches on 2/12. That cycle was most pronounced near Thompson Pass, but the same weak layer exists elsewhere and may be more pronounced in some locations.

Today’s wind is expected to stiffen the slab and rapidly load lee terrain—conditions that can cause persistent slab sensitivity to spike with little warning. Because it’s difficult to predict how the snowpack will react to this change, we recommend avoiding avalanche terrain above 2000’ while loading is underway.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.   

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