Olympics

 Avalanche conditions in the Olympics are generally safe, but continue to exercise normal precautions. Firm crusts will be difficult to avoid in the morning hours so take your time to avoid a long sliding fall. Snow surfaces are likely to soften with direct sunshine in the mid-day and afternoon hours with the help of warming temperatures.

The Olympics have been dry since January 10th and have been cold with mostly frozen crusts throughout the landscape since temperatures plummeted last Thursday. Sunday's notable change from prior days was some increased softening as the day progressed on slopes experiencing direct sunshine at Hurricane Ridge and also on Mt Ellinor. NPS rangers were reporting more boot penetration (1-2") with this softening on S aspects than the past few days, but crusts didn't break down. On Mt Ellinor, folks found conditions more suitable for kick steps than turns. These reports build on an observation from the same area earlier in the week reporting widespread firm crusts extend to at least 5700 ft in elevation. Steep terrain in this area also held frozen debris from old wet loose avalanches and frozen wind ripples along the ridgelines.

While these crusts are generally edgeable, they could be quite slick. A fall in steep terrain would be very dangerous; take extra time to navigate firm slopes and assess your ability to arrest a potentially consequential fall.

A swing to above freezing temperatures up to at least 8000 ft is expected on Monday after a cold start to the day. This is not the first time Hurricane Ridge has experienced above-freezing temperatures since the last snowfall January 10th. This 0.25" of snow water equivalent fell at temperatures between 34 and 32F as rain at Hurricane Ridge proper, extending crusts to at least 6500 ft. With thick crusts on aspects prone to warming, we expect the warming will merely provide for softer slopes and better riding conditions. If you do find that the surface crust is breaking down in your area due to warming temperatures, leaving you with 6" or more of boot penetration, simply adjust your aspect to slopes less exposed to strong sunshine. High clouds arriving in the mid-day hours could also soften breakable crusts on shaded aspects. These aspects have degraded surface hoar above a 1 cm crust, sitting on 4" of low density snow above a firmer snow layer. It's difficult to imagine a wet loose avalanche on these aspects, and one certainly wouldn't involve more than the upper 4-5" of snow, but if the snow becomes sticky or wet, simply reduce your slope angle. Boot penetration on these shaded aspects was reported to be around 12-14" deep. 

Hurricane Ridge holds a 44" snowpack at the weather station, but you can expect to find far less on wind-stripped ridgelines and on sun-affected slopes which in many cases are starting to expose bare ground. Below 4000 ft, expect limited snow coverage with exposed creeks and other obstacles.

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