Olympics
Lawinengefahr
Kernpunkte
A warm and drippy day shouldn’t amount to much avalanche hazard. You might trigger a small avalanche in very steep rocky terrain. The biggest issue continues to be the general lack of snow and overabundance of things to hit.
Avalanche Discussion
Warming temperatures could bring rain to near the top of our forecast area in the Olympics (6500ft) on Friday. Yuck! Fortunately, there’s not much water, and it won’t wash away much snow. However, it could change the surface conditions and produce a small slide or two in complex rocky terrain.
With rain on snow, the obvious issue is wet loose avalanches. We don’t expect these to be widespread or even big enough to be consequential. You’ll probably find wet, heavy snow and see plenty of rollerballs. If rollerballs start to entrain snow and produce tear-drop-shaped piles of debris, then wet loose slides are becoming more likely.
The other issue comes from lingering wind slabs that may have formed at upper elevations on Thursday. Warm temperatures and only a few inches of new snow means these slabs are likely small and hard to trigger. However, if you see a pillow-like drift below a cornice, that's the spot that could release.
In both cases, it’s not the size of the avalanche that’s concerning but rather the potential for a very rough and nasty ride. Given the current consequences, don’t underestimate even the tiniest avalanche.
This recent storm brought 2-3 inches of very wet, heavy snow to Hurricane Ridge. NPS rangers measured about 1 ft of snow at the study plot. However, snow depths vary, with much more on shaded and wind-loaded aspects and less on sunnier and windward slopes. No matter where you go, expect a laundry list of exposed obstacles and travel hazards. Take it slow and give yourself extra time to deal with these “low-tide” conditions.
It’s not all doom and gloom. In other zones, people reported “better than expected travel” on smooth open slopes where the surface softens. Maybe Friday’s rain can provide a bit softer texture.
NWAC may issue a gray "No Rating" for an elevation band when there is not enough snow to present an avalanche hazard.