Moose Mountain

FORECAST DISCUSSION 01.26.24

January has brought about significant weather fluctuations. At the onset of the month, our eagerly awaited new snowfall materialized, with up to 3 feet of cold, light snow blanketing the Selkirks and Cabinet Mountains. Following this, starting on January 10th, a historic drop in temperature occurred as the polar vortex unleashed a week-long blast of frigid air. The Panhandle experienced sustained temperatures in the -20s and -30s in certain areas. However, by January 18th, rain began, and by January 20th, ambient air temperatures rebounded into the mid to upper 30s. The past week has been unseasonably warm and wet, with upper elevations accumulating 2-8 inches of snow, while mountains under 5000 feet received rain.

Weather models predict the continuation of warm and wet conditions into the next week, with forecasted air temperatures in the mid-40s and a persistent chance of on-and-off rain. For snow enthusiasts, a glimmer of hope for February exists, as long-term projections suggest a likelihood of colder and wetter-than-average weather in early to mid-February. NOAA discusses the possibility of another Arctic blast affecting the continental U.S., though its impact on the Idaho Panhandle remains uncertain.

Understanding the seasonal weather context is crucial when assessing the snowpack. Weather significantly influences the snowpack, contributing to its strengths and weaknesses. A shallow snowpack may struggle to adapt to substantial temperature fluctuations. Currently, the snowpack is unusually variable, resulting in different avalanche concerns in various locations. At lower elevations, the avalanche issue is a Loose-wet problem. The rain has saturated the snowpack, and warm temperatures hinder its refreezing, creating soft, unconsolidated snow with limited support.

At higher elevations, colder temperatures, stronger winds, and a mix of rain and snow have been observed. While widespread layers of concern are not prevalent, pockets of wind-slabs near ridgelines, buried persistent weak layers around treeline, and storm-slab concerns above 6000 feet are noted.

In these conditions, travel advice includes frequently checking snowpack conditions and reassessing whats under your feet or snowmobile. While dangerous avalanche conditions exist in some areas, they are not universal. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are crucial to avoiding avalanche-related risks today. Stay dry and safe.

Author-Jeff Thompson

On the NW aspect near the ridgetop at 6000', two notable results were recorded: ECTN13 and ECTP23 (initially ECTN21 then P23 on the same layer) down 25cm within storm layers. This lives 2cm above a thin melt-freeze crust. The thin melt-freeze crust can easily identified visually in almost most areas when a pit is dug. A decomposed rain crust was identified at 140cm depth, exhibiting breakdown in P/1F+ hard crusts with 1F hard layers both above and below. At 6000' on the SE aspect, ECTN results were observed in the top 50cm of the snowpack. Isolated short cracks in the top ~10cm were noted, with the first instance of ECTP observed in recent storm/mid-January storm layers. Note: Observations made at higher elevations, particularly at 6000', revealed important variations in snowpack characteristics, including the presence of distinct crust layers and changing conditions within storm layers. In our other zones throughout the region ( especially East of this point) a persistent layer on basal facets. While this layer scored in our data pit, it may become a more prevelant or widespread in the future, however we will have to assess this layer over time. https://www.idahopanhandleavalanche.org/forecasts/#/selkirks-&-cabinets This report aims to provide comprehensive information on the snowpack and weather conditions in this specified area for the given date.

Approximately 5cm of new snow, contributing to favorable riding conditions at our location. 

At 5000', dry snow surface starts to become present, with wet snow found approximately 10cm below the surface.

At 6000' on North and South aspects, a snowpack height of 200cm is reported.