Dug an amateur's pit and tried my hand at a compression test (so take it with a grain of salt). Wasn't overly concerned about the route choice given the forecast, but thought it would be a good exercise nonetheless.
Info & results:
Opening in the trees, may very well have been tree bombed and/or skied in the past
N aspect, 1850 m, ~35° slope
180 cm snow depth
CTH 27 - resistant planar failure down 40 cm
No obvious weak layer (i.e., not an obvious/thick crust or big surface hoar layer), so maybe just a density change in the previous week's storm snow?