Presidential Range

Dangerous conditions remain in the bigger terrain at middle elevations as increasing wind speeds load more snow. Drifted snow may release naturally in the steepest terrain, and is likely to avalanche from a human trigger. Avalanches could be 1-3 feet thick and easily bury a person. Wind drifted slopes should be approached cautiously. Natural avalanches are most likely in areas such as the Gulf of Slides and Tuckerman Ravine, where there is the greatest amount of snow available to loading wind speeds. The avalanche danger today is CONSIDERABLE.

Field time yesterday confirmed the presence of reactive wind slabs on the west side of the range. These areas of soft and very reactive slabs laid over much firmer snow with a generous coating of rime that allowed enough ski penetration to make it safely skiable. You can use this type of spatial variability to reduce your exposure to larger instabilities but it takes careful assessment on the ground and good visibility to do so. 

It’s important to realize that danger ratings, and the terrain rose, locates and rates the areas with the highest frequency and greatest extent of the given avalanche problem. Even more important is to realize that the problem is likely to exist in other areas too. Any avalanche problem is subject to multiple variables that contribute to its development. It is also true that you could find an avalanche problem in the field that does not show up on the list of avalanche problem types here. Avalanche problem types are listed here in order of importance and meant to help guide your route planning. Ultimately, conditions on the ground will determine the actual danger that you face. Accurate assessment of the snow and, more importantly, the terrain that it rests on is the most important skill that you can develop. Today will be a challenging day to make these assessments due to cold temperatures and strong wind. When avalanche problems are complicated or uncertain, as they are today, seek simpler terrain. Wind sheltered, lower angled slopes and terrain without convex rolls are examples. 

From January 30 to February 6, fifteen avalanche fatalities occurred in the US along with many close calls. This was the deadliest week for avalanche fatalities in more than 100 years. The reason for the spike is unclear, but experts looking at this suggest a combination of factors that include a particularly dangerous snowpack across the US and the increased number of users. One important detail is that all of the victims were experienced backcountry users, not people venturing into avalanche terrain for the first time. Given the events this past week, consider taking a minute today to read about the accidents and reflect on your own decision making when in avalanche terrain. If anything, we can all learn something which hopefully influences better outcomes in the future.  

A complete incident analysis and report of the fatal avalanche accident that occured in the Ammonoosuc Ravine on February 1 is available here. 

Information on the recent US avalanche fatalities can be found here.

An interview with Simon Trautman of the National Avalanche Center can be found here. 

Thanks to everyone for submitting observations. The recent reports of faceting around the range have been very helpful. Please keep them coming. 

 Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

TONIGHT! Thursday, February 11 @ 7PM - Patagonia Films Event - Solving for Z. In this film, IFMGA Mountain Guide Zahan Billimoria explores his relationship with risk and reward in the mountains where stunning cinematography and engaging storytelling make this film truly stand out.  This event is FREE and we are excited to host Zahan live at the end of the showing to answer some of your questions live! 

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

• Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
• Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.