If the storm brings more snow than forecast, then the avalanche hazard will increase from the posted one. Deeper weak layers are still a concern in the snowpack. Natural avalanche activity has tapered, but human triggering remains likely at upper elevations.
This layer still persists throughout the region. Be especially cautious at upper elevations where the Mar 28th crust has not formed (mainly northerly aspects), and in shallow snowpack areas. Solar aspects are also a concern during periods of intense heating.
The more snow that falls will mean a bigger problem.
Continue to limit exposure to overhead hazard in areas that haven't avalanched,
2 size 2 solar triggered avalanches were observed today on an East aspect at higher elevation.
The forecast calls for 15-25cm of snow with light winds. This new snow will rest on the previously settled snow which includes a sun crust on solar aspects. Take the time to evaluate this bond between the new snow and the crust. At treeline, an average of 30-40cm of recent snow overlies the Mar 28 crust. This crust is 10cm thick at valley bottom, and 5cm thick at treeline, which easily carries the weight of a skier. Take the time to monitor the presence of this crust; if it is not there, then there could be a higher likelihood of triggering the basal facets. The Jan 30th layer buried 60 to 100cm deep is still a concern. It could become active with intense heating (daytime temps and/or solar input), and it is also problematic on northern aspects at higher elevations and in shallow snowpack areas. Human triggering is possible to likely in these areas. Forecasters continue to have low confidence in the snowpack due to an exceptionally weak base with dense slabs over top.
Snow starting Tuesday evening and is expected to last until Thursday. After that, expect sun and hot temperatures.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
