Natural avalanches are tapering off, but human triggering is still a real possibility. Trying to outsmart the snowpack is flawed logic in this type of condition. Develop habits that promote big-picture thinking and establish wide margins.
Slabs 25-60cm thick sit over a Dec. 17 weak layer of facets that was on the surface during the prolonged deep freeze. Test results show "sudden" failures which indicate that human triggering is likely. Watch for this in all open slopes.
The bottom of the snowpack is very weak and faceted. Avalanches have been occurring on this layer, or starting higher in the snowpack and "stepping down" to these basal facets causing large avalanches. Anywhere a slab is present over the basal facets we expect human triggering to be likely and remote triggering to be possible.
Both ski areas reported minimal results today. Some explosive work produced some very small slides. A skier-triggered avalanche in the Emerald Lake slide path occurred Saturday on the basal facets resulting in life-threatening injuries.
10-20 cm of soft surface snow in many areas gives good ski quality providing there is a base underneath. The upper part of the snowpack is now a settled slab and the lower part is active two persistent weak layers with snowpack tests showing sudden failures. All slopes steep enough to slide should be considered suspect right now. See snow profile from Wolverine Valley today.
A relatively benign weather pattern persists. Seasonal temperatures (-6 at the valley and -14 at the ridge), and light wind are expected on Wednesday. Some clouding with minimal to no precipitation is also expected on Wednesday.
