Avalanche danger and problems will be very specific to elevation and weather changes today. Expect to find storm slabs and wind slabs building on the highest peaks as the day progresses. Loose wet avalanches will be likely in steep terrain at elevations below 5,500' as the warm air and rain continues to saturate the snowpack surface.
Anticipate a rise in danger on Wednesday with fresh storm slabs and wind slabs present at elevations above 4,000'.
The snowline is predicted to lower to 5,500' today with strong southerly winds. With 2-6" predicted today and 5-9" predicted tonight it is likely you will find wind slabs building at upper elevations. By Wednesday morning wind slabs and storm slabs will likely be thicker and more consequential, it is also likely you will find them at mid-elevations as well.
Warm temperatures and rain are saturating the surface of the snowpack. It is likely you will be able to trigger small loose avalanches today in terrain that is steeper than 40 degrees. This problem will diminish as temperatures and snowlines drop this evening. The upper snowpack will lock back together by Wednesday as the snowline is predicted to lower to 2,000'.
We still have a layer of crust's and weak sugar at the base of our snowpack. Monday's snowpit results did not reveal any alarming failures as the snowpack above this layer is creating a pretty cohesive bridge. This warm air and rain will be a good test for this weak layer. If anything is going to trigger this weak layer it is prolonged warm temperatures and rain. Once temperatures drop and the upper snowpack locks back together, triggering the layer will be unlikely.
What a roller coaster of a week weather wise. From negative 20 and snowing back up into the upper 30's and raining. These wild swings in weather conditions cause alot of up's and down's in avalanche stability. For the St. Regis and Silver Valley Zone we encountered surpisingly stable results in our pit test's yesterday; however, we weren't able to get high enough to check out the alpine terrain to see if these warm temperature's were causing any mayhem. The temperatures will drop Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday as we settle into a more "normal" winter weather pattern.
The big thing to watch out for today will be new snow and strong winds. The snow will come in pretty dense and form slabs that will build throughout the day. This problem will become an issue as more snow falls and the snowline drops back down the hill. I think it is likely we will see some pretty widespread storm slab and wind slab problems by Wednesday. The wild card here will be how this new snow bonds to the existing snowpack. With the upper snowpack being wet and warm and a gradual cool down taking place it is possible that the new snow will stick pretty well. Time will tell!
