Bollettino valanghe

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Sat
Alta quota
4 · Forte
Limite del bosco
4 · Forte
Sotto il limite
3 · Marcato
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In sintesi

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  Yesterday's storm brought an additional 16 to 20 inches of snow bringing the week's snow totals close to 5 feet. Triggering a large and dangerous potentially unsurvivable avalanche is likely. Recent snow and wind have created storm slabs that could be over 3 feet deep on north and east-facing slopes near and above treeline. Deeper down in the snowpack faceted weak layers are now buried 3 to 5 feet down.  Whether it's a storm slab or persistent slab avalanche these avalanches will be large.  Traveling in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended today.

Problemi valanghivi

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Likely
    Dimensione
    2–2.5

    Persistent weak layers are now buried under 3 to 5-foot slabs and will continue to struggle to adjust to this latest round of loading. These avalanches will be large and destructive propagating widely across slopes and able to run long distances well into the flats and could be unsurvivable.   Shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may or may not be present and give you a false sense of security. Human triggered persistent slab avalanches are likely and you can trigger these types of avalanches from the flats below or long distances away. Traveling on or beneath terrain steeper than 30 degrees is not recommended.  

    Well preserved fragile faceted weak layers are widespread in our snowpack.  These layers formed in January and February during periods of high pressure and are now buried beneath 3 to 5-foot slabs that have formed over the last week. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Very Likely
    Dimensione
    1–2

    16 to 20 inches of snow fell over the last 24 with moderate W/SW winds.  By yesterday afternoon these slabs were sensitive and touchy at all elevations.  West winds yesterday were easily transporting snow at upper elevations onto the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain, these slabs could be over 3 feet thick and more reactive.  Cracking and collapsing in the snow are indications that you've found a storm slab.  Even if you trigger a storm slab within new snow these avalanches can be large and big enough to bury you.  

    On steep slopes where you find light powdery snow, there is a concern for loose snow avalanches that can entrain more snow as it slides down the slope and knock you off your feet and push you over a cliff or into a terrain trap where snow can pile up and bury you. With the high sun angle and intense sun this time of year expect to see some natural loose snow avalanches today in steep terrain starting as point releases near rock bands.  

    If traveling on ridgelines pay attention to cornices that may break back further than expected.  A smaller new snow avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche  

Avalanche Discussion

It's deep out there! Yesterday's storm capped off an active week of weather for us here in northern NM.  16 - 20 inches of snow fell mainly during the day into the early evening with west winds in the 15 - 25 mph range with gusts in the 30's.  This brings snow totals over the last week close to 5 feet of snow and over 4" of SWE.  Temperatures this morning are in the single digits with light winds.  Today will bring a return of the sun with temperatures warming into the teens and twenties.  A warming trend is expected through the weekend during the days with cold clear nights.  

Early reports this morning are of large natural avalanches running long distances well into the flats and easy to trigger storm slabs avalanches.

 Well preserved weak layers continue to remain deeper down in the snowpack buried beneath 3 to 5-foot slabs that have built up over the last week's storms. These faceted weak layers formed over high-pressure periods in January and February and are typically sandwiched between crusts or old decomposing slabs.  These faceted layers are found beneath an obvious dust layer that formed on 2/22 from a strong wind event. On many slopes, this dust layer was the old existing surface prior to the snow that has fallen over the last week.  These weak layers are widespread and can be found at all elevations with northerly through east aspects being the bulls-eye as these are slopes where we've seen the most amount of loading.  Prior to this storm, we had very warm temperatures and sunny days that created melt-freeze crusts of varying thickness and strengths on lower elevation terrain and solar aspects.  Thicker stronger crusts will be better equipped to handle more weight, but may just need you to find a sweet spot where the crust is less supportable. 

 

Over the last week, we've had more of an incremental loading pattern with small to moderate snowfall amounts almost every day with light to moderate winds.  On Wednesday a large persistent slab avalanche was observed on the north-facing slopes of Vallecito above treeline, but by and large, we hadn't seen many natural avalanches as we inched closer to a tipping point.  Yesterday's storm most likely got us there with peak instability in the late afternoon where we had 2-inch an-hour snowfall rates. With better visibility, we'll have a better idea of the extent of the avalanche cycle we just had.  

Regardless of whether it's a persistent or storm slab avalanche very dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  Unfortunately, this type of deep powder snow will force you into steeper terrain in order to make a turn.  It should turn into a bluebird powder day tempting you to chase the steep and deep.  Fight that urge as we let the snowpack adjust to this latest round of snow.

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