Northern New Mexico

A dangerous persistent slab setup can be found on Northwest through East aspects above treeline, where slabs up to several feet deep sit on top of very weak layers of facets and depth hoar.  Moving slightly down in elevation, the slabs are more diminished, but you could still find the right slab/weak layer combination on some slopes.  Any avalanche of this variety could break widely and deeply, taking with it most of the season's snowpack and easily be large enough to injure or bury you.

Another night without a refreeze and temps climbing higher today than they have all season, watch for wet loose activity on solar aspects as well as lower-elevation northerly terrain. Look out for roller balls and pinwheels to indicate that the snow surface is becoming really wet and that it's time to head to a shadier aspect or back to your car.  

The meteorological winter has come to an end as we turn the page to March, but temperatures over the last several days have been more in line with late April. The warmest day so far this season is in store for today, with temperatures climbing into the mid 50's at trailhead elevations. Albuquerque looks to potentially set a record high temperature of 80F today.  Overnight temps haven't helped with several stations above freezing this morning.  10 to 20 mph winds at ridgelines should help with some of the warming at upper elevations, but it'll be another hot one. If you're out early, you'll have some supportable crusts to travel on, but in many places, they are very thin or will turn breakable and punchy by mid-morning if they aren't already. 

It's been over a week since the last snow, but the weather, as of late, has done strange things that are playing into our avalanche concerns for today.  Above treeline Northwest through East aspects continue to retain well-connected slabs that have proven to still be reactive and able to produce large avalanches breaking on buried drought facets or depth hoar near the ground. Facets and depth hoar are still easy to impact in travels in our overall shallow snowpack. These upper elevation slopes will continue to be the most dangerous, but some near treeline slopes on similar aspects harbor the same problem.  The snowpack depths are just spottier at these elevations compared to above treeline, and relatedly, the slabs aren't as robust or widespread.  This will mean less overall danger at these elevations, but a more unpredictable situation slope to slope.  We came across a large natural avalanche on an ENE near treeline aspect the other day that appeared to have failed on February 25th or 26th, painting a scary overall picture of what's possible even at these mid-elevations.

This avalanche was not one you would want to be involved in.  It failed naturally on early season depth hoar, breaking 2-3ft deep, 150ft wide, and sent most of the season's snowpack about 600 vertical feet downhill.  (2/27/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

Typically, as we push further away from the last storm, the likelihood of triggering slab avalanches goes down as the slabs settle and change.  But this warm weather period has been wildly unseasonal, and it's led to unusual behavior from the snowpack.  Whether the natural avalanches we've seen recently were due to nearby wet loose activity, warm rocks near the start zone, or a warming slab is kind of difficult to say, but we do know that this nasty snowpack structure exists on much of our northerly and East-facing avalanche terrain above treeline as well as plenty of similar aspects near treeline. 

Lower down in elevation, the snowpack has been taking a lot of heat this week.  Wet loose activity will be ongoing today with rapidly warming temperatures and direct sunlight.  These smaller avalanches will also affect more of the northerly terrain today, with warm temperatures and no refreeze overnight.  Over the last couple of days, water has been percolating deeper into the snowpack on some solar aspects above 11,000 ft, so the threat of wet slabs continues to build.  Deeper snowpacks at low elevation or those at middle elevations (up to near treeline) with significant solar exposure would be the most suspect for this issue to develop.  If you happen to be in the mountains late in the afternoon, be cautious around avalanche terrain and runout zones if you're finding it easy to punch in past the wet snow near the surface all the way to your hip or the ground. 

It's a spooky setup in the mountains right now.  Ask yourself: Is the skiing and riding quality even worth messing around with any larger avalanche terrain today?  It'll be another great day for other outdoor activities like cycling, climbing or floating, but if you are getting out, make a conservative plan with a wide margin for error and finish up early.