A rising avalanche danger is possible on Saturday with fresh snowfall and increasing winds. With a stronger and windier system forecasted beginning Monday, the avalanche danger is likely to rise early this coming week.
Be sure to have a partner and carry the necessary rescue gear of beacon, probe, and shovel.
Remember that traumatic injury is common with any early season avalanche accident due to the thin coverage.
We will update this as conditions warrant. Please submit your observations - thanks!
The potential for shall soft slabs of storm snow and sluffing is possible during the day on Saturday, especially during any period of higher precipitation.
South and southwest winds may find some soft snow to drift at the upper elevations. Watch for signs such as cracking in fresh wind slabs.
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If you're seeing anything we should know about, submit your observations HERE.
None.
Currently: There is about 1-2' of dense, settled snow on shady slopes in the Cottonwoods and much of the southerly-facing aspects have melted out. Although warm temperatures may have taken a toll on what has been good riding conditions for October, the warm temperatures, dense snowfall, and roughly 18-24" snowpack has helped prevent weak snow from developing. McKinley Talty, the Know-Before-You-Go (KBYG) coordinator for the UAC, was in Catherine's Pass area on Tuesday and found a strong and "rightside-up" snowpack:
This Weekend: A small system will move into the region on Saturday and should deliver a few inches of snow. Winds will be from the south and southwest and may gust into the 20's mph along ridges. Snowfall should diminish on Sunday with increasing southerly winds later Sunday and into Monday.
This Coming Week: A concern with October snow is that unless it keeps snowing, the existing snow on shady aspects will weaken and turn to facets and depth hoar, possibly creating a future weak layer into the winter. The best remedy to prevent a layer of "October Facets" is for continued snowfall and it looks like we'll get our wish (at least through midweek) as a stronger system enters our region on Monday. It should be quite windy and deliver 10-15" of snow by Wednesday morning with a rising avalanche danger likely.
History:
This active October weather reminds me of October 2004 where upper LCC received 122" between October 17th and Halloween. The Alta snow stake sat at a cool 81" on November 1st. But it was not all good news that year - the winter of 04/05 was our most tragic year for avalanche fatalities with eight.
Knock the rust off and get up to speed with the Utah Avalanche Center podcast. Make sure to catch Early Season Essentials with Bo Torrey HERE or anywhere you get your favorite podcasts.
