Bollettino valanghe

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

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Limite del bosco
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In sintesi

Warm temperatures and the intense sun this time of year will quickly warm up the snow surface bringing wet snow avalanche concerns.  For today that should be confined to loose wet snow avalanches, but in the coming days we could see water percolating deeper down in the snowpack creating the threat of wet slab avalanches. Rollerballs and pinwheels and punching into wet snow above your boot tops are indications the snow surface is becoming wet and it's time to head to a shadier aspect. 

Deeper down in the snowpack, faceted weak layers continue to linger on northerly and east aspect with stubborn slabs above.  Warning signs like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks mos likely will not be present, but these types of persistent slab avalanches can break widely across terrain features.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops as these are places you are more likely to impact deeper weak layers.  It may not be the first or second person on the slope to trigger an avalanche but just finding that right "sweet spot" of slab/weak layer combination. 

Problemi valanghivi

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    1–2

    Faceted weak layers from the January/February dry periods are buried beneath 2 to 4-foot slabs from snow we received at the end of Feb/early March. These weak layers are showing signs of healing and strengthening and becoming more stubborn to being triggered. Recent stability tests are producing hard force or not failing at all on 4F hard rounding facets. These types of conditions can be tricky as obvious signs of instability most likely will not be present and it could be the third or fourth person on the slope to find that "sweet spot" to release an avalanche.  However, if you do trigger a persistent slab avalanche there is potential that it could be large and destructive.  Warm temperatures also do weird things to the snowpack and make triggering an avalanche on these deeper layers more likely. Steep northerly and east aspects continue to remain the bulls-eye for lingering persistent slab concerns. Avoid areas on the margins of the slab and near rock outcroppings, as these are likely trigger points where you're able to impact these weak layers  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    1–1.5

    It's going to get warm today with temperatures climbing above freezing at all elevations and into the 50's at trailheads. It's that time of year when you'll want to start to think about getting early starts before the snow surface warms up by mid-day. These types of avalanches typically start as small point releases in steep terrain near rock bands and fan out as they travel down the slope.  Rollerballs and pinwheels or punching in over your boot top are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet and gloppy and it's time to head to a shadier aspect or call it a day and enjoy the nice weather.   With warmer temperatures expected over the next couple of days and overnight temperatures hovering around freezing expect larger more destructive wet slab avalanches to become a concern in the coming days.

Avalanche Discussion

Warm and sunny weather is expected over the next 4 days with temperatures climbing above freezing at all elevations and into the upper 50's today at 9000'.  Temperatures will be climbing into the 60's over the weekend as we may see near record-setting temperatures for this time of year. Might be good days to head to the river! Temperatures this morning are in the upper twenties and overnight temps over the next several days look to hover right around freezing with the warmest day forecasted for Sunday. The big thing we'll be monitoring is hours above freezing, and whether we get a somewhat decent refreeze at night.  As we start to accumulate hours above freezing, free water is able to percolate down deeper in the snowpack, pooling around crusts or creating wet collapsable facets and the potential for larger more destructive wet slab avalanches.  These types of avalanches can be hard to predict and forecast but I'd expect to see avalanche danger rise in the coming day's cause of this warm weather.  

At upper elevations, you may find pocketed small wind slabs from recent moderate to strong northerly wind on Wednesday.  I was not finding these to be reactive, but watch for and avoid obvious wind drifted pillows or smooth hard lens that may feel hollow.  These wind slabs would be small but could knock you off your feet and be problematic in consequential terrain.  Deeper down in the snowpack, weak faceted layers from January/February dry period continue to linger 2 to 4 feet below the surface beneath dust layers that formed in February from strong wind events.  Long column tests have produced a mixed bag of results from moderate to hard force with full propagation to no result.  This persistent slab problem can be unpredictable, and with temperatures rapidly climbing today, it adds another level of uncertainty as to what the added weight of rider will do to a warming snowpack.  Sticking to lower angle terrain will help stack the odds in your favor.  

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