East Slopes South

Your risk increases markedly on Monday as winds redistribute new snow and then rain destabilizes previously dry snow. Navigate away steep slopes as snow warms and becomes heavy or wet, and where the wind deposits fresh snow.

NWAC forecaster Joe Dellaporta set eyes on the ES snowpacks from afar as skies partially cleared east of the Cascade Crest on Sunday (12/7). He identified consistent snow coverage above 6000 ft on most aspects and suspects that there is enough snow for real avalanche danger above that elevation. In the 5000-6000 ft range, the snowpack becomes very thin and will likely wash away with the warmth and rainfall forecast for this week. Photos in the gallery. In one of these photos, you will notice signs of fresh, small cornice formation and recent wind loading.

The incoming major atmospheric river will start cold enough for snow, but as snow levels rise, expect to 7500 ft or higher during the afternoon, all previously dry snowpacks will receive rainfall. If you make it to terrain with real avalanche risk above 6000 ft, here are a few pointers to manage your risk:

1. Once temperatures rise or rain changes to snow, expect snow surfaces to destabilize. Rollerballs may form in previously dry snow as the snow becomes top-heavy and wants to "shed." Move away from steep slopes if you encounter wet, manky, destabilizing snow.
2. Prior to the warming, moderate to strong winds will transport fresh and recent snowfall. We suspect that 2-6" of snow may have fallen over the weekend in some areas and we're expecting a few more inches of snow early Monday before the transition to rain. This is enough snow to form wind slabs that could ruin your day. Keep it simple and avoid slopes with signs of active or recent wind loading, particularly if you suspect deposits 6" or deeper. You will have to assess the bond to the underlying crust from Friday's rainfall.

We suspect that most avalanche activity would be small in size given recent snowfall amounts, but these come with enhanced risk when snowpacks are this shallow. Expect an avalanche to carry you into early-season hazards, some of which may be just beneath the snow surface.  Keep moving through the backcountry with an early-season mindset...the snowfall will come...we just need to get through a few more warm systems first.

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.