Purcells

Snowfall amounts may vary dramatically across the region. The hazard may change dependent on the amount of new snow. More snow than forecast may push the hazard rating higher than forecast.

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A series of Pacific storms will bring snow to the forecast area for the next 7 to 10 days. Forecast models vary on amounts and some parts of the area may see larger amounts of precipitation.Tuesday night: Freezing level at valley bottom. Light to moderate precipitation as another wave of moisture comes in from the Pacific. Winds forecast to be south east, moderate to strong at ridge top.Wednesday: Freezing Level: 1400m. Light precipitation starting late in the day and into Thursday morning. Moderate to strong south west winds at ridge tops.Thursday; Freezing level may climb to 1200m, precipitation tapering off in the morning with a short break in the weather. Ridge top winds remain moderate to strong from the south west.Friday : Freezing levels stay around 1200m, flurries throughout the day and the possibility of more precipitation later in the day. Ridge top winds moderate to strong from the south west.

Reports of numerous size 1 to 1.5 skier controlled and natural avalanches in the past 24 hrs. We expect the number of reported avalanches and size to increase with the new snow and strong winds.

The new snow has been falling on a variety of weak surfaces that include surface hoar (widespread in most sheltered and shaded areas at all elevations), facetted wind slabs from the recent cold clear arctic conditions, and there may still be sun crusts on some steep south facing slopes. These weak layers will be problematic for the near future and it will take time for the new snow to bond with the old surfaces. Significant weak layers of large surface hoar and facetted snow are now buried 10 to 30 cm below the new snow surface. These weak layers are expected to remain a problem for the foreseeable future. The rest of the snowpack is generally well consolidated. Forecast strong winds at ridge tops will redistribute the new snow and form wind slabs on lee slopes. A facet/crust weakness near the bottom of the snowpack has gone dormant for the most part. The depth of this layer makes triggering an avalanche unlikely but the consequences would be very serious.