Abajos

You can still trigger an avalanche on steep, northerly facing slopes that have enough snow to ski or ride and the avalanche danger is MODERATE in these areas. With wind and snow in the forecast this morning, be alert to changing conditions and a potential rise in avalanche danger. The current snowpack structure is very weak and the danger will instantly increase with any significant snow load. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Cracking or collapsing in the snowpack are signs of instability. Most south-facing slopes are bare and therefore have LOW to no avalanche danger.

Skies are cloudy, SE ridgetop winds are blowing in the 20-25 mph range, and mountain temps are around 20F. A closed low tracking southwest through the 4 Corners region will give us a chance for a few inches of snow today. 3"-5" are possible. High pressure builds Wednesday with long-range models finally showing hope for a change in the pattern this weekend and extending into early next week. Today look for mostly cloudy skies and a chance for snow this morning. SE winds will blow in the 15-20 mph range with higher gusts along ridge tops. High temps will be in the low 20's.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

Snowpack Discussion

The meager snowpack has deteriorated into a pile of mostly weak, sugary, facets. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads. If we get snow totals on the higher end of the forecast, expect a corresponding rise in avalanche danger as blowing and drifting snow add stress to the underlying weak, sugary snow. Avoid slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. You will find fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. They are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking or collapsing is a sign of instability.

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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.