Ski conditions are excellent, but the reactivity of the persistent weak layer is highly variable. Ease into bigger terrain. If this layer is triggered, it could produce a large avalanche.
30-50cm of recent snow and previous winds have formed wind slabs in the alpine and some treeline locations. Winds aren't forecast to increase too much on Sunday, but lingering slabs will still be possible to trigger.
A layer of facet and/or surface hoar is down 40-100 cm. Reactivity is highly variable across the region, producing variable results in pit tests. Dig down to check whether the layer exists, and ease into the bigger terrain. If triggered, it will be large.
Sunday: No snow, West winds 20-30, and treeline temperature highs of -10C
Monday: Light amounts of snow, strong SW winds, and freezing levels rising to 2200m. Snow picks up in the evening.
Tuesday: So far, Tuesday's forecast is for strong winds, 20-30cm of snow, and freezing levels up to 2500m. Snow continues for the rest of the week. Stay tuned...
A field team at Lake Ohara experienced a large settlement at treeline on the 24th layer, 60cm down. No new avalanches were reported today. On Friday, A large natural avalanche (3.5) was reported on a feature called Megladon in the Sunshine backcountry. Sunshine also had an explosive controlled size 2.5 on the same layer in the Wild West. Both went on the persistent layer.
25-50 cm of recent snow has formed variable wind slabs, and it overlies a rain crust on all aspects below 1900m and a sun crust up to 2400m on solar aspects. The Jan 24th persistent layer (Surface hoar and/or facets) is down 40-100cm and is producing moderate-to-hard results in stability tests. Below this is a mainly well-settled snowpack, with depths deeper than most years.
