Be conservative with your terrain choices. Recent, warm, stormy weather brought rapid change to the snowpack. As temperatures drop, the hazard ratings should improve, but mountain travel could become very challenging.
Terrain that didn't get rained on has the potential to have received large amounts of snow with consistently strong wind. If the snow seems soft and dry, watch out for signs of instability like shooting cracks, or hollow, drum-like sounds, and use extra caution around ridge crests and on convex rolls.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. 10-20 cm of snow expected at higher elevations. Strong west wind. Freezing level around 1000 m. Alpine low around -3 C.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with the potential for afternoon clearing. Possible trace of snow expected. Strong northwest wind, decreasing to moderate through the day. Freezing level dropping to around 800 m.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. No new snow expected. Moderate southwest wind trending to strong west in the afternoon. Freezing levels rise to 1600 m.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy by the afternoon. Light snow/rain expected. Moderate to strong west wind. Freezing levels around 1600 m.
On Wednesday, we expect that heavy precipitation, rising freezing levels, and strong wind caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle. No new avalanches were reported as of 4 pm.
On Monday, several natural and rider triggered wind and storm slab avalanches were reported across the region up to size 2.
A wet, warm, rainy storm on Wednesday soaked the upper snowpack up to mountaintop in much of the region. With freezing levels forecasted to drop back down to 1000 m or lower, expect a supportive surface crust to form, making for challenging travel conditions. Consider the consequences of slipping or falling on a steep, firm slope.
At elevations that did not see as much rain, expect the new snow to have formed reactive windslabs in lee terrain due to consistently strong south through west winds.
Down 60-100 cm, you may find a weak layer of surface hoar crystals, particularly around treeline elevations in terrain features sheltered from the wind. This layer may be found immediately above a hard melt-freeze crust.
Deeper in the snowpack, another surface hoar layer from mid-January may be found around 80 to 120 cm deep at higher elevations in sheltered terrain. This layer is most problematic where it overlies a hard melt-freeze crust.
