Bollettino valanghe

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Sat
Alta quota
2 · Moderato
Limite del bosco
2 · Moderato
Sotto il limite
1 · Debole
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In sintesi

The snowpack in Northern New Mexico is showing signs of increased stabilty after 5 days of high pressure weather and no new snow. We haven't seen natural avalanches in the past week, but there is still a possiblity of human-triggered persistent slab avalanches today. The most likely trigger points are shallow spots in our snowpack, which is generally quite variable. Pay close attention to these areas if you do step out onto steeper slopes today, and always use sound risk management and terrain management techniques such as skiing one at a time down a slope.

Problemi valanghivi

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    1.5–2.5

    You can still trigger a large avalanche if you find a trigger point amidst the right combination of slab and weak layer. Our early season weak layers are still out there and they are sitting beneath a sizeable amount of snow from all of our storms over the last 6 weeks. Many solar aspects contain faceted crusts that are also a point of concern. At the upper elevations, we're finding a supportable hard slab atop these weak layers, so it would take hitting an unlucky shallow spot to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. Any avalanche of this type would be large and likely not survivable. Below treeline, our weak layers are really prominent, but in general they don't carry a very cohesive slab on top as the entire snowpack has been faceting in these shallower areas. Still, it's possible to find a more cohesive slab below treeline thanks in part to some of the intense wind that we've seen over the last few days. Keep your nose in the game and use careful terrain and snowpack analysis if you are stepping out onto steeper slopes today.

    A snow profile representative of our deeper above-treeline snowpack. We're finding hard slab material atop our early season weak layers.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

After nearly a week of high pressure, the snowpack is slowly showing signs of adjusting to all of the weight that was added in early February. It's a great time to get out and explore the mountains using sound terrain management tactics. Northerly aspects and wind-sheltered areas are holding the best snow right now, and we've got decent weather for backcountry skiing and riding over the next few days.

The snowpack in our region is starting to move in two different directions. Near and above treeline, depths are well over 150cm in many of places. The weak layers that we've been stressing since all the way back in early January are still there and still a point of concern, but as a general trend it's become more difficult to impact them as a backcountry traveler. That said, you can still hit a trigger point in a shallow spot near a rock outcropping or a wind-stripped area. It's also worth noting that we've had some significant wind over the last few days, especially near ridgelines. So you could also release a wind-loaded pocket and that might add enough energy to a slope to step down to a deeper weak layer. Look for isolated wind loading today and consider using your pobe to get a sense for the varible snow depths in your zone before stepping out onto a steeper slope. The really good news is that in these deeper areas, there is a small enough temperature gradient present that the Janurary drought layer and the depth hoar will start to heal. That said, this process doesn't happen overnight and it's important to stay attentive to terrain and trigger points today.

Below treeline, the snowpack is less than 150cm deep in many places still. Over the last week, we've had a number of cold nights and even some colder temps during the daytime, and this leads to a totally different outcome in shallower areas. The entire snowpack facets, in addition to the weak layers, with a prolonged weather pattern like this. Yesterday, I dug a profile in a sheltered area below treeline and found a largely faceted snowpack (see first image below). This pattern lends itself to excellent, safe skiing, especially in wind and sun-sheltered areas. But it's important to keep in mind just how variable our snowpack can be - you might still find lower elevation areas with a more cohesive slab and you should approach such areas with caution.

It's nice to enjoy a little bit more stability for the moment, but don't lose sight of the bigger picture. We still have active weak layers in many places, but it's either difficult to impact them or there isn't much of a reactive slab on top. If you step out onto some steeper slopes, stack the cards in your favor: assess the snowpack and terrain wisely, expose only one person at a time, and stop below runout zones. Stay safe and enjoy it out there!

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