The avalanche danger is MODERATE and human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible. Steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW-N-E are where you are most likely to encounter a problem. There also remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for triggering a deep avalanche, failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Though the likelihood of triggering this type of avalanche has lessened, the consequences have not, and this type of avalanche is un-survivable. The problem is most acute on steep slopes facing NW-N-E right around treeline and above. Most south facing, and low elevation terrain offers LOW danger.
You can still find areas of wind drifted snow along upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features on slopes facing NW-N-E. They'll be less reactive today, but human triggered wind slabs 18"-24" remain possible. Look for smooth, rounded, pillowy looking deposits, and exercise caution on any steep slope that you suspect might be loaded.
Though becoming increasingly more difficult to trigger, deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are still possible. The problem is that signs of instability are not presenting themselves, and you may be able to put one, two, or several riders on a slope before someone finds the right trigger point. If one is found, the avalanche will be un-survivable. Shallower areas along slope margins, or near rocks and sparse trees are potential trigger points. The problem is most acute on steep slopes facing NW-N-E. right around treeline and above.
In our travels on Friday we observed numerous natural soft slab avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow. These appeared to average between 12"-18" deep, and were occurring on upper elevation slopes facing primarily N-NE-E. We observed no new activity yesterday.
For a list of avalanches this season go here.
The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead, and the Upper Two Mile Road have not been plowed. Access is tricky with up to 8" of snow and underlying ice that will turn to mud. 4wd, and a healthy sense of adventure are required. Numerous vehicles made it yesterday.
A big shout out to the sledders in San Juan County who completed a Motorized Backcountry 101 Course this weekend! And a huge thanks to Al and Eston from Backcountry Institute for putting on the course!
Light snow is falling, SW winds are averaging 15-20 mph along ridge tops, and 10,000' temps are in the mid 20's. Today look for mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers, continued SW winds in the 15-20 mph range with gusts to 30, and daytime high temps in the mid 30's. 1"-3" of snow are possible. Tomorrow will see sunny skies and warmer tempearutres.
The two day storm brought 15" of snow to the mountains and conditions have been about as good as they get in late March. Cloud cover kept the snow good for most of the day yesterday, but lower elevations and sun exposed slopes succumbed to the heat by afternoon.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Winds at 11,000 feet on Abajo Peak (11,330') about 45 miles south.
National Weather Service point forecast.
Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
