Blues

It is unlikely that you could trigger an avalanche today.   The main mountain hazard for the day will be firm surfaces on solar aspects, where a slip could turn into an uncontrolled slide.  The likelihood of triggering an avalanche will increase tomorrow through early next week as an active weather pattern brings snow back to the mountains.  

This forecast is sponsored by Skejersaa Group 

What to Expect:  

The primary hazard in the mountains today will be tricky travel conditions.  Slick and firm surfaces on solar aspects increase the chances of a slip becoming an uncontrolled slide.  Northerly and Easterly aspects hold inconsistent surfaces consisting of pockets of soft snow next to firm wind-affected snow.    

The weather will be changing dramatically in the next 24 hours and the savvy backcountry traveler will change their travel mindset as this occurs.  Many of us have been operating in an "open season" mindset, where I haven't hesitated to say "If there is snow on it, it's probably ok from a stability standpoint".   We will all need to take a big collective step back in our terrain choices as new snow and wind will overload the weak structure of our upper snowpack in the next week.  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Blue Mountains starting Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for heavy snow.   

You've heard it before and you'll hear it again..... Today's snow surface is tomorrow's weak layer.   On solar aspects (South and West) we have observed a melt-freeze crust that will serve as a bed surface for new snow avalanches.   On shadier aspects (North and East), we have a smattering of surface conditions but the main concern consists of 10-12" of weak, faceted, sugar snow that sits at the surface.  In other sheltered zones at lower elevations, large surface hoar has been observed.   The worst scenario is where weak faceted snow or surface hoar sits directly above a crust.  Check out Victor's observation from Spout Springs last week where he found this structure!  

I know what you're thinking.... How will the new snow bond to these old surfaces?    Good Question.   I'll pull out the old avalanche instructor standby answer.   It depends.  When a storm is impacting our area, the "right side up" recipe is for it to start warm and trend colder.  This allows better bonding to old snow surfaces and gives us a better foundation with denser snow on the bottom and lighter snow on top.   Our incoming storm is forecasted to start warm and trend colder.   That being said, the current snow surface will be stressed to a breaking point when enough of a load is introduced.  The likely scenario looking forward will consist of incremental loading over several days until the scales are tipped.  This creates a challenge for backcountry travelers navigating avalanche terrain.  The best approach will be to utilize a conservative mindset as we see how this all unfolds.   Be patient.  

Observations:  Add value to your avalanche forecast.  Help us reduce uncertainty.  This weekend will be an ideal time to submit an observation if you get out in the backcountry.  

Eastern Oregon Backcountry Festival-Bid on the Online Auction Now!!!

Join us for the 13th Annual Eastern Oregon Backcountry Festival January 31-February 2nd. 

• Jan. 31: Ski Film and Pie Auction @HQ in La Grande.  Doors open 6:00 PM Adults $10, Kids $5.  Come watch the new Matchstick Film Calm Beneath Castles and bid on pies and other desserts.  If you would like to bring a dessert for the auction please arrive at 6:00 PM.  
• Feb. 1: Kip Rand Backcountry Race (Anthony Lakes) Race starts at 8 AM, show up at 7:45.  Companion Rescue Clinic 10 AM, Snow Pack Obs Clinic 1 PM.  Live music by Wanderlust 3:30 PM Main Lodge with raffle.  (You must show up 15 min early for clinics and race at EOBF tent on S. Side of Rental shop.)
• Feb 2: Tour with WAC Staff:  Ski tour into Angell Basin to better understand how to safely travel in avalanche terrain.  Please consider purchasing raffle tickets, bidding on an auction item, or donating $50 to the Wallowa Avalanche Center if you are planning to attend this tour.