Northern New Mexico

It's possible to trigger a large wind slab avalanche in the alpine today on a leeward aspect, where strong winds have drifted the recent storm snow into stiffer, harder slabs. It's also possible to encounter sensitive wind drifts in cross-loaded gullies and other wind-loaded features today. Wet loose avalanches are a secondary concern, particularly on wind-sheltered solar aspects at lower elevations. Deeper down in our snowpack, faceted crusts and near surface facets that were present in the upper meter of snowpack prior to the last storm are now buried 3+ feet below the surface. You're unlikely to directly impact these weak layers in your travels today, but if you triggered a smaller avalanche nearer to the surface, it could step down into one of these deeper persistent weak layers, leading to a very large and destructive persistent slab avalanche.

Weekly temperatures will peak today before cooler air and another spring snowstorm arrive at the onset of next week. Ridgeline winds will continue to be sustained today, transporting what's left of the recent new snow that fell earlier this week on exposed windward slopes. Travel conditions have been difficult all week, but a decent amount of settling has occurred (6-10") thanks to all this springy weather, which will lead to easier backcountry travels this weekend. If you're looking at getting out there and checking out the riding, you'll want to pay close attention to the snow and utilize careful route planning. There are multiple avalanche problems on the table right now.

Your number one concern today is wind slabs near and above treeline. Yesterday, W/SW winds were strong, sublimating some of the new snow but transporting lots of it into fresh drifts and stiff slabs on leeward terrain. Today, the winds will be slightly weaker but still strong enough to continue transporting snow. Expect to encounter wind slabs on leeward and cross-loaded aspects today (NW-E-SE), some of which will appear supportable because they have become harder and deeper. Don't let this trend fool you and be sure to poke around in the snow and think about the consequense of triggering a large wind slab avalanche before commiting to a steeper piece of terrain. Please also be cognizant of canyon wind effects if you're touring in from the West: gully features and other terrain pockets are likely to harbor sensitive wind-loaded pockets today. My best advice to you is to stay away from obvious wind drifts on steeper slopes and watch for stiffening snow underfoot, cracking, or loud audible collapses as these are obvious signs that a wind slab has developed nearby. If you triggered a wind slab avalanche, it could step down into one of our persistent weak layers, which would lead to a very large, potentially catastrophic avalanche. With all of this in mind, look for the lowest consequence places to drop in if you do choose to ride on steeper terrain and always be willing to back off of your main objective(s) entirely.

It's also the time of year where wet snow avalanches are common, and today is shaping up to be the hottest day of the week. Expect more wet cycles today, even with the winds in the mix. You're most likely to encounter wet, destabilizing snow at lower elevations where the temperatures are highest, but it's also possible to find it on solar aspects in the higher alpine that aren't getting hammered by the winds. As always, look for signs that the snow surface is taking in heat: roller balls, pinwheels, or wet, sticky snow, and be aware that even a small wet loose avalanche is likely to entrain a lot more snow as it moves downslope.

There's a little less certainty when it comes to our persistent slab problem. Faceted crusts and buried near surface facets from our late February and early March dry periods remained in the top meter of the snowpack before this latest round of snow. This last storm was the first significant loading event since these layers formed and they seemed to hold up well. That said, avalanche control teams got a result the other day in uncompacted terrain where a new snow avalanche stepped down into deeper weak layers. Today, you're unlikely to impact these weak layers on your own, but if you triggered a wind slab avalanche or a wet loose avalanche, it could step down to these older weak layers as it moves downhill and picks up momentum.

If you go out on a tour this morning, start early and end early, or hunt for shadier aspects. Be ready to work hard breaking trail and don't forget to bring glob stopper or warm base wax, as once you transition from dry to wet snow this will create perfect globbing conditions. Wind and sun sheltered terrain should still contain some decent, fluffy snow to ride, but you'll want to get to it early. Stay safe out there and enjoy the weekend!

Our last scheduled forecast for the season will be tomorrow: Sunday, March 31st.