Southeast Mountains

The best riding conditions have been found in wind-sheltered areas at lower elevations. In these areas, you will also find the lowest probability of human triggering a slab avalanche, and normal caution is advised. Heightened avalanche concerns remain on previously wind-loaded slopes where it remains possible to human trigger a large slab avalanche. The most recent human-triggered avalanches were observed in this type of terrain last Sunday. (1 & 2)

Yesterday ZG highlighted a couple examples of the most concerning areas to trigger the current persistent slab avalanche problem, and conditions remain the same today. "Forecasters on Sunday intentionally triggered a couple of large slab avalanches on Mt. Baldy and Mt. Emmons. In both cases, they were slabs of drifted snow that formed recently over our mid-December weak layers. Because the snowpack has been rotting away in sheltered terrain, the slabs were able to entrain a significant amount of weak snow. Problematic slabs are more common and larger near and above treeline. At those higher elevations, the recent wind event has redistributed the problem away from wind-eroded slopes and onto wind-loaded slopes. This video demonstrates how you can visually identify and avoid the most concerning terrain." For the most part, the riding conditions in these wind-affected areas is poor, and that has made it even easier to avoid this type of terrain. While in wind-sheltered areas, mostly at below treeline elevations, the persistent slab structure has become stubborn and isolated. 

The persistent slab avalanche problem also received a few tweaks. Warm temperatures and mild conditions have lowered concerns for a slab avalanche on some southerly-facing slopes and the problem rose was adjusted to reflect these changes. More confidence has also been gained that the potential avalanche size has also decreased slightly after the extreme wind event. Though this will be very short-lived as the avalanche size will begin increasing again as we look ahead to the next storm. 

The river of moisture is inbound, and with it, we can expect another river of natural avalanches. The potential for some big snow numbers is at our doorstep and we will see rising avalanche danger beginning Tuesday Night. The avalanche danger is expected to rise to HIGH ( level 4 of 5) on Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday Night, if we receive the upper end of forecasted snow. Areas with the weakest snowpack now will be the areas that become the most dangerous first. Those are probably the same areas you are choosing to ride today, so take note of the weak snowpack that has developed in many wind-sheltered slopes at below treeline elevations. While wind hammered above treeline slopes will probably be the slowest to produce natural avalanche activity, but since they will be able to hold a bigger load, they will also produce bigger avalanches when they release.