With a strong sun and warm temperatures, the danger for wet avalanches will again rise to MODERATE today. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy. And though the chances are decreasing, a MODERATE danger still exists for deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points such as steep convexities or shallow snowpack areas near rock outcroppings or sub ridges.
With a strong sun and warm temperatures, the danger for wet avalanches will rise throughout the day. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.
Though the odds are decreasing, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in February. Significant snowfall and strong winds have built slabs 2'-4' deep over top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving this persistent weak layer on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.
This will be the last weekend for regularly scheduled forecasts.
Road Conditions: The road is mostly dry. Some mud and snow exists near the upper end.
Grooming: Grooming has been suspended for the season.
The Avalanche Research Program at Simon Fraser University is conducting an online survey to examine how people use avalanche safety information. They want to hear from all backcountry users to understand how they process information provided in public avalanche forecasts. Anyone who completes the survey before May 15th will be entered to win cash prizes.
Uncertainty, Risk, & Decision Making: before, during, and after COVID-19 - Read this thought-provoking blog post about how we take risks by guest author Tom Diegel.
Numerous loose wet avalanches have occurred during the week, primarily on westerly aspects.
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 63" Wind SW 5-15 Temp 22F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: Skies are clear and we had another good re-freeze last night. Look for sunny skies today, light to moderate westerly winds, and high temps in the mid 40's. Tonight, a short wave trough and associated cold front will drop in from the north bringing clouds, increasing NW winds, and a slight chance for snow showers. Temperatures will crash into the teens tonight, and skies should clear tomorrow. High temps on Sunday will be in the low 30's. We'll remain under a cold, NW flow through Wed.
Snowpack: With a good re-freeze last night we should see a return to corn snow conditions today. Dave Garcia and Nate Ament were out harvesting yesterday, read their observation here.
I've been observing a strengthening snowpack on northerly aspects and stability tests are not producing results on the faceted weak layer from February. Spatial variability is still a key component however, and there are still places where weak facets can be found beneath a slab that is 2'-4' thick. Avoid steep wind loaded slopes and shallow areas in the alpine or right around treeline. Likely trigger points include steep convexities and areas around rock outcroppings, sub ridges, or along slope margins. The more radical the terrain, the greater the likelihood for triggering an avalanche, and I'm still not feeling all that confident about steep, north-facing terrain.
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
We've closed down the beacon park for the season. Thanks to volunteers Evan and Maureen Clapper for helping me with that!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
