Keep an eye on the snow surface, as it gets moist with warming and solar input the size and likelihood of avalanches will increase.
Wind slabs exist in exposed treeline and alpine terrain. Size and sensitivity to triggering could be greater where wind slabs have formed over a crust.
The likelihood of natural cornice falls could increase with solar input and warming. Avoid traveling on slopes with cornices looming above.
Wet loose avalanches will likely occur on steep terrain on all aspects and elevations, except high north terrain. Size and sensitivity to triggering could increase throughout the day with rising freezing levels and solar input.
Wednesday night: No new snow expected. Light west winds and a low of -10 at 2000 m.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with no new snow expected. Moderate southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 2500 m in the south and 2200 m in the north of the range.
Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with rain at lower elevations and up to 5 cm of new snow in the alpine. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level around 2300 m.
Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southwest winds and freezing levels around 1500 m.
Over the past few days ski cutting has produced wind slab avalanches up to size 1.5. These avalanches have generally been on north and east aspects in treeline terrain. Explosive control has produced storm and wind slab avalanches up to size 2 on all aspects at treeline and above in the western part of the region where more storm snow was recorded. Several small cornice falls have also been observed .
We suspect that warming and solar input will result in wet loose avalanches on all aspects and elevations except high north. Natural cornice falls are also increasing in likelihood.
Wind slabs exist in exposed terrain in the treeline and alpine on north and east aspects. A crust can be found on or near the surface on all aspects as high as 2500 m and to mountain top on solar aspects. This crust will become moist as the freezing level rises and the sun comes out.
A thick rain crust with facets above from early December is buried around 150 cm deep. Large avalanches were naturally triggered on this layer during the last significant warming event in western terrain near the Bugaboos. Significant solar input and warming could wake this layer up again.
