An overall MODERATE avalanche danger exists in the backcountry. Human triggered soft slabs of wind blown snow are possible, particularly in the upper elevations. As the day warms up, expect the potential for WET LOOSE avalanches to rise on slopes that face the sun. If you're noticing surface snow becoming wet and easier to make a snowball with, then these slides are on the menu.
In isolated terrain, it may be possible to trigger an avalanche that steps down to a persistent weak layer of faceted grains near the ground or adjacent to a rain crust buried a couple feet deep.
Slabs of wind-drifted snow may be surprisingly sensitive or loaded into areas skied in previous days. While these may be small, they can knock you off your feet quite easily….be mindful of what you’re skiing over. There is potential to be able to trigger these from a distance.
Our newest snow has seen two days of full sun (in some areas) and warming temperatures. Today, temps continue to climb near freezing with another day of sun. Expect the new snow to warm throughout the day on slopes that face the sun, with the chance of wet snow avalanches increasing into the afternoon.
Watch the surface snow throughout the day. If you're noticing its becoming more wet and saturated—easier to make a snowball with—then these slides are on the menu. Wet, loose avalanches are most likely on steep slopes close to rocky outcroppings. Roller balls and pin wheels are warning signs to change aspects or head back to the truck.
As travel has been difficult in the Provo area mountains, we don't have much information on current conditions. Still, based upon the weather history and adjacent snowpack information in the Central Wasatch, we know that poor snowpack structure exists primarily along the upper elevation shady terrain both at the ground and associated with the holiday raincrust 2' down. These would be low probability avalanches but destructive nonetheless.
Two days ago, we received report of a likely catch and carry avalanche off Rochester Ridge. The observer didn't witness the event, but the tracks tell the story. More slides like these are what you're likely to find in the backcountry today.
We have not heard of any other avalanches in the Provo area mountains, but suspect that both sluffing and wind slabs were noted in the high country.
On Monday, a snowmobiler triggered a very large hard slab at First Cornice, a zone known for heavy wind loading. This is on the Wasatch Back near Snake Creek. The crown averaged 4 feet deep, but near the most heavily loaded areas by the cornice, it may have been up to 7 feet deep. A follow-up investigation by Brooke and Trent confirmed the avalanche was a slab of wind-drifted snow that failed on small grain facets above the Christmas Eve rain crust. The avalanche did not step down more deeply into the old snow below the crust.
Read all backcountry observations here.
Skies are mostly clear. Temps are in teens and will climb to near freezing during the day today, with more sunny skies in the forecast. Winds are generally light from the west-northwest. Coverage remains thinner, but fortunately supportable because of the old holiday crusts and graupel from the last storm. There are actually decent touring conditions above 8000'.
High pressure dominates the weather forecast for the coming week.
Ian McCammon and Kelly McNeil's 2024 paper Six Tips That Could Save Your Life (Recent updates to Safety Messaging) is worth a re-read. It could save your life.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
