LOW avalanche danger exists throughout the forecast area, though the potential for small avalanches of wind drifted snow remains in isolated areas at mid and upper elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Hard, smooth snow exists on many other aspects. Crampons and an ice axe will increase your security in those areas.
Avalanche danger is expected to increase significantly overnight and tomorrow as a winter storm brings significant snowfall and wind to the Presidential range. Natural avalanche activity will become likely in many areas with very dangerous avalanche conditions developing.
Left Gully and the variations of Chute along with north facing gullies in Huntington are examples of the isolated areas where wind slabs exist. The smooth, hollow sounding slabs are easy to identify and are generally worth avoiding due to low skiing quality and postholing on foot if not due to the elevated avalanche risk.
A mix of snow surfaces exist at mid and upper elevations preceding the incoming Nor’easter. Most of our middle and upper elevation areas have a wind scoured, mostly smooth surface. This snow surface was the result of the 157 mph wind last weekend. It is very dense and mostly smooth and will make for a perfect bed surface for avalanches to run. South facing aspects saw direct and intense sun but snow did not warm at middle and upper elevations.
Much of the western aspect of the range has limited snow coverage but there are plenty of areas large enough to produce a large (D2) to very large (D3) avalanche with the incoming snow. Think Oakes Gulf and the Ammo as falling into the latter category. Webster Gullies and slabs will also see quite a bit of snow and if not wind loading at least the potential for an upside snowpack as snow switches to sleet or freezing rain for a period of time tomorrow.
The key variables to watch in this storm beyond the obvious snowfall totals is the wind speed and direction, especially the backing winds and their potential load south facing aspects and crossload others. Looking further ahead, upslope snow and northwest winds on Wednesday and Thursday may continue to increase the risk of natural avalanches depending on snow density and availability for wind transport. Watch the hourly observations here for “blowing snow”. As long as that appears, the potential for natural avalanches will exist.
Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here.
Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info.
Thursday, February 4 @ 7PM - Avalanche Awareness with Al Mandel.Al Mandell of Acadia Mountain Guides joins us to chat live about Avalanche Awareness. We hope you join us!
The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin.
Please Remember:
For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.
