Bollettino valanghe

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Pericolo valanghe

Thu
Alta quota
2 · Moderato
Limite del bosco
2 · Moderato
Sotto il limite
1 · Debole
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Non aggiornato — questo bollettino è scaduto 7 years ago. Stai vedendo condizioni passate, non il bollettino in corso.

In sintesi

Triggering large, 1-3 foot thick slab avalanches remains possible. Avalanches are most likely where the wind has formed drifts or stiffened the snow surface. To reduce your risk, steer clear of obviously wind-loaded terrain.

Problemi valanghivi

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alta quota
    • Limite del bosco
    • Sotto il limite del bosco
    Probabilità
    Possible
    Dimensione
    2–3

    The fact that we have not observed or received reports of avalanches releasing since Sunday is evidence that triggering a slab avalanche is becoming less likely. But—and there's always a but—that does not mean it is impossible to trigger 1-3 foot thick slabs. The persistent weak layers (facets, surface hoar, and crust+facet combinations) below the recent storm snow and deep in the snowpack are adjusting to the weight of last week's big storm, but we cannot completely trust them. Where are you most likely to trigger avalanches large enough to bury people today?

    • Wind-loaded terrain: Slopes where the wind formed drifts and/or stiffened the snow surface. 
    • "Primetime" slope angles:  Slopes around 35-45 degrees in steepness.
    • Southerly facing terrain: Much of the recent avalanche activity involved crusts and facets just below the recent storm snow. These layers appear to be slower to stabilize on SW-S-SE aspects than the weak layers on shadier slopes.

    Recognize that it remains possible to trigger large avalanches before committing to skiing or riding in large or consequential avalanche paths. If you don't want to take on that much risk, stick to gentler slopes. 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONLast night's snowfall and wind may have formed thin, isolated wind slabs near ridgelines in exposed terrain. While these slides should not be large enough to bury people on their own, there's a chance a small avalanche could trigger a larger, deeper slab as it travels downslope.

Avalanche Discussion

We have reached the dreaded “scary MODERATE” danger rating. Avalanche hazard is the likelihood of an avalanche impacting something of value — for our purposes, that thing is you. As the likelihood of an avalanche decreases, the avalanche danger also decreases. But, it gets tricky; while the likelihood of triggering a slide is decreasing, the consequences of getting caught remain the same. 

This scenario we're facing is commonly referred to as “low probability, high consequence,” or LPHC for short. LPHC events are tricky to deal with, in the backcountry and in life in general. You must decide what threshold of risk is acceptable. Picture Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry asking you:  "Did he fire six shots or five? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself...are you feeling lucky?" 

As you travel through the backcountry, recognize you are facing a LPHC problem. The best way to manage this uncertainty is to build wide safety margins into your travel decisions. Be aware of the terrain you are traveling in and underneath, and picture the consequences of being caught in a slide in that terrain.

Details from Wednesday's Avalanche Accident in Baker Creek:On Wednesday, January 15th, 2020, a snowmobiler was caught and killed in an avalanche in the Baker Creek drainage, approximately a half-mile northeast of Baker Lake. This video contains preliminary information collected during a site visit last week; a full accident report will be published in the coming days.

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