Cariboos

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Friday: moderate precipitation starting Thursday evening and continuing throughout Friday morning / moderate southeasterly winds / freezing level at 1600m Saturday: cloudy skies with light snowfall / light and variable winds / freezing level at 1600m Sunday: overcast skies with a possibility of clearing in the afternoon / light to moderate easterly winds / freezing level at 1700m

No new avalanches were reported from the region on Wednesday: however, observations were extremely limited. I suspect that there was continued natural wet avalanche activity in response to very warm temperatures and intermittent direct solar radiation. With the current weather pattern, I expect a shift from wet snow avalanches to storm snow instabilities at higher elevations, while wet snow instabilities will still exist below treeline.

Very warm temperatures have dominated the region in recent days and all but the highest, north-facing slopes saw moist to wet surface conditions. As of Thursday morning, slightly cooler temperatures have allowed light amounts of new snow to fall above about 2000m while rain continued to penetrate and weaken the snowpack at lower elevations. Up to 60cm below the surface, you might find a weak crust interface in the alpine and at treeline; however, I suspect that forecast cooling may assist in strengthening this weak layer in most areas. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 200 cm, although avalanches releasing on this layer represent a very low probability-high consequence scenario. Cornices in the region are very large. With spring temperatures, these are more likely to become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release deep layers on slopes below.