A complex rain-snow-rain weather pattern will persist through Sunday. If heavy falls eventuate, avalanche hazard can increase quickly.
Be alert to changing conditions and stick to ridge lines and low angle terrain if in doubt.
Winds will shift from NE through N into the NW creating a complex surface snowpack. If precipitation rates rise, be extra careful and stick to ridge lines and low angle terrain.
Transported snow may be blown lower than you expect, so beware snow density changes (stiffer, firmer snow) in unexpected places at mid elevations.
Periods of rain below 1800m will add weight to the snowpack and raise the hazard of loose wet avalanches on all aspects.
Forecast for Sunday 9 August
Occasional rain, heavy at times until evening. Snow to 1400 metres.
Wind at 1000 metres
Northeasterly 40 km/h turning northwesterly 35 km/h in the morning then rising to 55 km/h in the afternoon.
Wind at 2000 metres
Northeasterly gale 75 km/h, turning northwesterly gale 75 km/h in the morning then easing to 55 km/h in the evening.
Freezing level
1600 metres.
Expect areas to be stripped back to hard surfaces from the gale winds at higher elevations. Crampons and an ice axe are a good idea, as many firmer areas now exist.
Low
No avalanche activity reported.
If you see anything, please report it in the public observations section of the NZAA website.
The upper snow pack has settled and strengthened significantly with warmer temps in the last 24hrs. Within this snow pack, field reports indicate possible weaknesses that the incoming storm may overload to trigger avalanches. There are wind stripped surfaces at higher elevations on NW through S aspects. Below the settling upper snow pack is a formerly wind pressed snowpack from earlier in the season with no significant layers of concern. There are limited observations of the new snow line around the forecast area, but threshold for avalanches is estimated at around 1500m in the west, tapering east. At lower elevations (below 2000m) ice crusts exist but bonding to the ice layers has been good.
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
