The hazard is considerable at upper elevations, and moderate at mid and lower elevations. Numerous large avalanches have been triggered around Douglas over the past few days, primarily on northwest-facing slopes. Be especially wary of large, unsupported slopes near ridge tops. Remote triggering, wide propagation, and unreliable feedback are all concerns while traveling in the mountains today.
Natural avalanches are possible, and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Practice careful route finding and conservative decision-making. Ski, ride, and sled slopes one at a time, keeping eyes on each person.
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So far, the only activity we have observed on this persistent slab has been specific to North- to West-facing aspects at our upper elevations. However, this does not mean there is no potential for reactivity on other aspects and elevations—especially as we move into this regime change with northerly winds in the forecast.
With intermittent snow showers over the past 10 days, there is a significant amount of new snow and layering within the recent storm snow. Powder Patch reported~5" of new snow overnight. As winds increase late this afternoon, watch for preferential deposition—wind-transported snow loading into atypical start zones.
We enter a regime change today following a 10-day storm cycle that brought intermittent, yet significant snowfall to the region. The primary concern on Douglas is reactivity on a melt-freeze crust approximately 85 cm down. On March 6, rain fell up to 4,000 ft, creating this crust. We will refer to this layer as the 3/6 melt-freeze crust. So far, this problem has remained specific to northerly and westerly aspects.
21 of the 24 days in March have brought some form of precipitation (mostly snow) to the region. During these low-pressure (storm) events, we have predominantly seen ESE winds, which transported and deposited snow onto North- to West-facing slopes. This has led to a substantial buildup on these aspects, increasing the load on the 3/6 melt-freeze crust. Persistent grains have been observed around this layer of concern.
On March 22 and 23, multiple avalanches were reported that are believed to have failed on the 3/6 melt-freeze crust on North- to West-facing aspects. Most of these avalanches were D2 or larger in size.
As we continue to monitor this layer and its prevalence on other aspects, use caution when stepping out onto any aspect of large, open, and connected slopes.
As we transition to a high-pressure system and increasing sun, watch for solar radiation on south- to west-facing aspects creating potential sun crusts and/or wet loose activity. Wet loose avalanches could step down deeper into the snowpack, potentially affecting the 3/6 melt-freeze crust.
Thank you for submitting your observations—they are very helpful as we continue to track the reactivity of the 3/6 melt freeze crust.
