Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist, and large avalanches are unlikely. While it would take a dose of bad luck, you are most likely to find trouble on very steep, rocky, wind-affected slopes.  

Today's small amount of snow and moderate wind will do little to change the big picture. There is no well-defined avalanche problem in this zone, and triggering a large avalanche is unlikely.  Here are a few things to consider, especially if you're planning a day in the bigger peaks:

• Slope Angle: Avalanches are most likely on "prime time" slopes, those around 35-45* in steepness. 
• Wind Slabs: Snowfall and wind this afternoon may build a fresh set of thin, isolated wind slabs. These slabs are likely to be very small but have the potential to knock you off your feet. These as well as older weathered slabs will be most sensitive where they rest above polished icy surfaces or pockets of weak, faceted snow. 
• Weak Snow Near the Ground: Weak, sugary, faceted snow exists at the base of the snowpack on shaded NW-N-NE-E facing middle elevation slopes and on many upper elevation slopes. It would take a dose of bad luck, to trigger a 4-6 foot thick monster slide on this layer, but the consequences would be severe. 
• Cornices: Cornices are abnormally large for January. Look out for yawning cracks that form when these blocks of snow peel away from steep ridges. Continue to give these unpredictable features the respect they deserve.

Considering the consequences of an avalanche before riding a slope is a good way to keep your ambitions in check. Even small avalanches can have big consequences in larger, more complex terrain.